In 2005, a Mideast window of moderation

• Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is hoping to withdraw from the Gaza Strip in phases this year, with all settlers and soldiers gone by September. But analysts say that the withdrawal process could strengthen the Israeli right, who are opposed to any land concessions. On the Palestinian side, Gaza's welter of armed Palestinian groups needs to be integrated into one orderly body to make this work.

In 2004, the West became convinced that Iran was preparing to build a nuclear bomb. There was much diplomacy from the US, Europe, and the UN, but it's not clear that much trust was built. Some experts say Iran is likely to inch closer toward a nuclear bomb this year, unless key steps are taken.

What to watch:

• "The US needs to open direct negotiations with the Iranians on the nuclear issue," says Rob Malley, director of the International Crisis Group's Middle East Program. So far, European and UN mediation efforts have only partially succeeded because they can't give the Iranians what they want: Some reassurance that US relations will improve.

• Iran has vowed to continue enriching uranium until February. International veri-fication of whether it has stopped or not will be an indicator of whether Iran is willing to back off.

• Iran is holding presidential elections in May. Most analysts expect the religious and political conservatives - who deepened their control of Iran in 2004 - to continue to rule. Iran's conservatives could take any electoral success as a mandate to continue to defy Western efforts to deny them the bomb.

No Middle Eastern event in 2004 had an impact as wide-ranging and immediate as high oil prices. For the first time, a barrel sold for more than $50. By comparison, a barrel traded for about $25 in late 2002, and has averaged much higher as China's thirst for fuel has grown and Iraq's oil pipelines have come under attack.

What to watch:

• OPEC and non-OPEC nations have been talking about adding to production capacity to help ease prices, and oil traders will be looking for signals this year that major efforts are under way. If countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia start adding capacity, prices could drop.

One revolution that continued to gather steam in 2004 - and looks set to continue - is the emergence of new media outlets.

Satellite television like Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya reached millions of Arab viewers, and Internet usage continues to surge, giving Arabs access to uncensored Web logs and websites. About 4 million Arabs had access to the Internet in 2001. Toward the end of 2004, about 17 million Arabs were online, and current projections are for 50 million Internet users by 2008, according to Internet World Stats, an online service that tracks Internet usage.

While Islamist and jihadi websites have also proliferated, uncensored news in the Middle East is available as never before. Growth in satellite TV and Internet usage will play a key role in shaping Arab views over the year - and decade - ahead.

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