Moves toward moderation in Mideast

One month after Yasser Arafat's death, realignments on both sides of the Palestinian-Israeli divide are raising fragile hopes for a mutual retreat from four years of fighting.

The changes, which are being shadowed by renewed violence, include efforts by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to forge a coalition with the Labor Party in Israel for pushing through his Gaza disengagement plan, and, in the occupied territories, the likely ascendancy of moderate Palestinian Liberation Organization chairman Mahmoud Abbas and a drop in support for militant Hamas.

"Sharon wants to take a breather and the Palestinians want to take a breather so they will head to negotiations," says Khader Abu Abarra, an analyst based in Beit Jala in the West Bank. "The two sides have exhaustion in common."

He says the fatigue and leadership changes will be enough for a resumption of talks and a period of calm of up to two years, although the two sides, he predicts, will prove unable to tackle the core issues of the conflict.

Mr. Sharon refused to negotiate with Mr. Arafat, alleging he was involved in terrorism. But Sharon's approach toward the Palestinians can be expected to largely resemble that of the moderate Labor Party, with which he is currently trying to form a coalition, says Hebrew University political scientist Menachem Hofnung. "If the Palestinian side comes forward, I believe Sharon can be a partner in a revised peace process, though how fast and how far it will go, I am not sure."

"Sharon understands there will be a Palestinian state and that Israel cannot hold the territories forever. His considerations include preserving Israel's Jewish majority and good relations with the US," he adds.

The hope that peace talks will resume soon is widely shared by public opinion on both sides. A joint poll released last week by the Hebrew University's Truman Institute and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research showed 76 percent of Israelis and 83 percent of Palestinians expect negotiations to resume compared with 63 percent of Israelis and 72 percent of Palestinians surveyed in June.

But hope for change comes against the backdrop of a fresh escalation in the Gaza Strip, which is taking a toll on civilians and fueling doubts about whether a reconciliation can get off the ground.

Monday, Israeli helicopters fired missiles at targets in Gaza City, without causing casualties, in an initial response to the killing of five soldiers and wounding of five others at a Gaza-Egypt border position Sunday night when Hamas and the Fatah Hawks blew up 1.5 tons of explosives. It was the deadliest attack since Arafat's death in November. In Israel's first assassination attempt since Arafat's passing, Israeli helicopters last week wounded a senior Gaza militia commander, Jamal Abu Samhadana.

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