The men who could replace Arafat

Mahmoud Abbas and Ahmed Qureia, the two leaders attempting to step into Yasser Arafat's shoes, face a daunting task: winning the favor of the radical group Hamas, the US, and Israel as they attempt to consolidate power.

Both men are veteran politicians from Mr. Arafat's Fatah movement and are respected internationally for their roles in the 1993 Oslo Agreement with Israel and subsequent negotiations.

But unlike Arafat, or imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouthi, they have no credentials in the armed struggle against Israel and they lack popularity in the Palestinian street. For this reason, analysts say, they would be best off adhering to legal provisions for elections within 60 days of Arafat's death, which could help them gain legitimacy.

Failure to push for elections, which Israel in the past has opposed and could potentially thwart, "will put a big question mark on Qureia and Abbas's style of ruling and their legitimacy," says Hani Masri, a commentator based in Ramallah. The US stance on elections also will be crucial to shaping Israeli policy, he adds.

Political analyst Khader Abu Abarra, based in the West Bank town of Beit Jalla, adds: "Without an election there could be chaos; everyone could say, 'I am the leader.' If they want a good future for the Palestinian people, they need to hold elections within the 60-day period." According to Palestinian law, Rawhi Fatouh, speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, becomes acting president of the Palestinian Authority prior to elections. However, he lacks a power base in Fatah and his role is seen as symbolic.

Mr. Abbas, deputy to Arafat on the Palestine Liberation Organization executive committee, and Mr. Qureia, the PA prime minister, have already assumed many of Arafat's powers. Abbas handles international affairs and Qureia, finance and security. But in a poll taken in September by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research to gauge support for Palestinian leadership, Qureia and Abbas ranked, respectively, a distant sixth and seventh.

Avraham Sela, a Hebrew University specialist on Palestinians, says Abbas and Qureia are counting on US help in the aftermath of President Bush's reelection. "They want to see if there is any news from Washington," he says. "It could help them if the administration comes with a new initiative. Without this, they could face Israel's building of the [West Bank] wall without being able to provide anything [to Palestinians]."

Abbas, born in 1935 in Safed in what became Israel, was a founding father of the Fatah movement along with Arafat. He served as head of the international relations department of the PLO and started dialogues with dovish Jewish groups. In 1993, he joined Arafat at the signing of the Israeli-Palestinian declaration of principles on the White House lawn. In May 2003, he became the first Palestinian prime minister, after international pressure forced Arafat to accept the post. But amid difficulties with both Arafat and Israel, he resigned four months later.

In an interview in September with Jordan's al-Rai newspaper, Abbas sharply criticized the use of arms during the intifada, saying it failed to topple Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, led to Israeli reoccupation of Palestinian land, and damaged relations with Washington. He called for Palestinian implementation of the road map, which envisions a viable Palestinian state alongside a secure Israel.

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