Early lines on Bush's next cabinet

President Bush has enjoyed extraordinary continuity and loyalty from his cabinet. Now, a second term won, the personnel shuffle will soon begin - though not all at once. Over the next few months, and probably well into next year, expect a steady stream of top-level Bush appointees either to leave altogether or to move to other high-level jobs.

As Bush considered his options at Camp David this weekend, the great Washington rumor mill worked overtime, with friends of cabinet secretaries speculating about who would leave and who might replace them.

Among those considered likely to leave include Attorney General John Ashcroft, Secretary of State Colin Powell, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, and Treasury Secretary John Snow. But even they may not go immediately, in part because they are reportedly energized by Bush's victory and also because of the issues at stake.

"Word went out after 9/11 that people should basically stay put, and most cabinet officers were of a mind to do that," says Paul Light, a professor of public policy at New York University. "Now I think you'll really see the revolving door start to spin, and it will accelerate through June."

What does seem clear is that the policy agenda for Bush II has been set, and that remaining debates over how to proceed on priorities such as tax reform and Social Security are going on right now inside the White House, and not awaiting input from new appointees. Though Bush spoke in his press conference last Thursday of wanting "people to walk in and say, 'I don't agree with this' or 'I do agree with that,' " analysts say that this president keeps his decisions to a relatively tight circle, and is not inclined to throw them out to the cabinet.

Increasingly, decisionmaking is tightly coordinated by the White House, with outside input getting steadily narrower. Political director Karl Rove holds weekly conference calls with cabinet secretaries' chiefs of staff, one sign of that tight leash.

This is not to say that Bush is outside the modern norm. "Generally, this is the way it's been for the last three or four administrations," says James Pfiffner, a public-policy expert at George Mason University. The first President Bush "paid more attention to his Cabinet than most other presidents since Carter. But Clinton's ideas were run out of the White House."

Still, cabinet secretaries do matter. The top appointees can have input and round out the public face of the administration. They can also become lightning rods over controversial policies - either to the administration's detriment or, alternatively, shielding the president from criticism. Topping the list of such lightning rods is Attorney General John Ashcroft, an outspoken religious conservative whose role shot to the forefront after 9/11. Associates have been saying for months that he was ready to leave, after a bout of ill health; but following Bush's victory, he was rumored to be considering staying.

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