On foreign policy, how bold will Bush II be?

On the heels of a campaign that hinged like few before it on foreign policy and national security, President Bush must now determine if the "Bush revolution" in foreign policy is to be pursued with vigor - or scaled back.

With his decisions in coming days and weeks on key foreign policy appointments for a second term, on Iraq, and on such pressing issues as Iran and North Korea, Mr. Bush will begin to send the signals.

The president Thursday said he'd made no decisions about appointments, but emphasized that promoting freedom will be part of his foreign policy, even in the face of those who disagree with such interventionist action. "This adminstration's faith in freedom to change people's habits ... will be central to my foreign policy," Bush said at a press conference. He also emphasized having "the will of the people" at his back in foreign policy.

Indeed, the aura of a clear-cut victory could tempt him to continue on a path of unsheathed American power and uncompromised pursuit of preeminence. On the other hand, a traditional second-term attention to legacy, the bruises of a divisive campaign, and a rendezvous with the limits to US power could prompt a reorientation to a less aggressive global profile.

"On the one hand is the theory that, chastened by the experience of Iraq, the second administration will be much more restrained and will resemble the traditional Republican foreign polices of years past," says Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington.

"Then there's the opposite view," he adds, "that the president and his neoconservative advisers will be emboldened to interpret this election as a mandate and will be even more aggressive about pursuing their goals. And I happen to subscribe to the latter."

Some experts believe a battle could break out within the GOP over foreign policy if Bush suggests, especially by key appointments for a second term, that he is set on pursuing preemptive strikes, unilateral projection of power, and ad-hoc alliances over institutionalized pacts.

"I see an internal struggle for the [Republican] party over the next couple of months between the neoconservatives and the realists, because both wings supported the president, and people will want something for their loyalty," says John Hulsman, a foreign policy expert at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. "It's an inside-the-Beltway battle that actually matters to the rest of the world."

Others say such a battle would have been guaranteed had the president lost, but will now be muted, and will depend on staffing decisions and directions on matters like nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea.

"If there'd been a Republican defeat, we would have seen an attempt by what I'd call the realists in foreign policy matters to retake the ground captured by the neocons in the first term," says Geoffrey Kemp, a former national security adviser to President Reagan now at the Nixon Center in Washington.

Still, he adds, "It depends on how Bush handles the next month or so. [Such a battle] is a lot less likely if he does things like take that period to reach out to people like Brent Scowcroft." The first President Bush's national security adviser, Mr. Scowcroft warned publicly of the pitfalls of invading Iraq and has more recently been critical of the Bush administration's close relationship with Israeli Prime Minster Ariel Sharon.

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