Electoral tug of war in final stretch

For most of the year, both campaigns have operated under the assumption that whoever wins two of the big three battlegrounds - Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania - will win the White House.

But as the candidates hurtle across the country in their final full week of campaigning, they are paying just as much attention to a group of smaller states, whose electoral votes could now prove decisive in what looks to be an exceedingly tight race.

The reason for this is simple math: If Sen. John Kerry holds Pennsylvania and wins Ohio but loses both Wisconsin and Iowa, he would ultimately still fall behind President Bush in the electoral vote count. If Kerry can hang onto Wisconsin under that same scenario, it would put him over the top - unless he fails to hold New Mexico. But if he takes New Hampshire, New Mexico won't matter.

Similarly, if Bush wins Florida and Ohio but loses Nevada and Colorado, he'd come up short. Or, if he were to win the two bigger states but lose Nevada and New Hampshire, he and Kerry would wind up tied - throwing the election to the House of Representatives.

Of course, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania remain critical - and sweeping all three would hand either candidate the election. But while Kerry probably does need to win two of the three to get to 270 electoral votes, it wouldn't be a lock, since Bush could map out a win with only Florida or Ohio, by stealing some of the smaller states from Kerry's column.

"It's pretty hard to come by a scenario whereby Kerry loses both Ohio and Florida and wins the election," says Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University. "But it's a little more likely for Bush to be able to lose two of them and still win."

The increasing importance of every electoral vote reflects just how tight the race appears to be in the final days, with the electoral map looking just as narrowly divided as in 2000. Most of that election's closest states appear to be once again coming down to a handful of votes, meaning the smallest shift could push either candidate over the top.

Interestingly, while Bush has clung to a narrow lead in most national polls, Kerry is running slightly ahead in polls that separate out battleground states.

The discrepancy between those two results, seen across a number of recent public polls, may or may not prove lasting or meaningful. Analysts say it may reflect the fact that Bush is drawing stronger levels of support overall from red states than Kerry is from blue states, with his base more consolidated than Kerry's. But it could also reflect the fact that Kerry is slightly ahead in some of the bigger battlegrounds - states like Pennsylvania - while the smaller states are increasingly the most closely contested.

Page: 1 | 2