Syria's grip on Lebanon tested

Even close allies such as France lost patience. In a move that stunned the Lebanese and Syrians, Paris agreed to cosponsor with the US the UN Resolution 1559, which calls on Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, allow an unhindered presidential election, and to stop interfering in Lebanese affairs.

"The decision to prolong the mandate of Lahoud triggered 1559. We could have avoided 1559 if we hadn't taken this stupid decision," says Jumblatt.

Yet in stark defiance of the resolution's demands, the day after it was passed, the Lebanese parliament, under Syrian pressure, voted to amend the constitution, granting Lahoud another three years in office.

In an ominous portent of the anticipated crackdown on opponents to Lahoud's rule, Marwan Hamade, former minister and a close friend of Jumblatt, was badly wounded and his bodyguard killed earlier this month by a car bomb. The bombing was seen as a signal to Jumblatt to curb his rhetoric.

"It's impossible to engage in serious dialogue with such people," Jumblatt says. "They don't want any dialogue. When we said 'no' to the prolongation [of Lahoud's presidency] they said OK, 'we will kill you.' "

Diplomats here believe the attempted assassination signals a more ruthless approach by the next government to quash signs of internal dissent. "There are high expectations that it will be a national security government that will challenge Resolution 1559 and lead a broad crackdown on the opposition. We are looking out for signs of that," says a Western diplomat.

The Lebanese opposition says that it is not seeking confrontation with Syria but wants a balanced state-to-state relationship. "What I want is an independent Lebanon," Jumblatt says. "I have no objection to the stationing of Syrian troops for defensive purposes ... until peace is established between the Syrians and the Israelis. But I don't want the Syrian intelligence and the Lebanese intelligence to interfere in public affairs."

On a regional level, Lebanon traditionally has served as a battlefield for Syria and Israel to settle their differences. But Professor Khazen says that Syria's long-standing support for Lebanon's Hizbullah organization and radical Palestinian groups are no longer bankable assets with which to win concessions from Israel or the US.

"What the Syrians don't realize is that today their so-called cards such as Hizbullah are like a check that they cannot cash. The bank closed for them on September 12, 2001," he says.

But analysts suspect that the Syrian government lacks the flexibility to redress its relationship with Lebanon, favoring a tighter grip and playing for time. "The Syrians are betting on the momentum being lost in the UN and that a defeat for President Bush in November will bring about a new ball game," says Simon Karam, a former Lebanese ambassador to Washington.

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