US, Iraq weigh major new offensives

Indeed, many Iraqis worry that the elections will be dominated by five main political parties that have taken increasing control of the country's affairs.

Potential candidates, have worries, too - some are fearful that as soon as they declare their intentions, they and their families will become targets of anti- election forces.

The elections are essential to calming the country, Iraqi experts say, since they will replace an appointed government with one chosen by the people - removing a rationale for a strengthening insurgency.

Iraqi officials and US leaders insist the elections will take place on time - by Jan. 31. But other experts caution that, with most Iraqis still knowing nothing about election plans and other questions unresolved, it will be more important to get the elections right than to hold them on time.

"If we can hold inclusive, fair, and open elections, this will calm the masses and provide a sense of hope that Iraq can move forward," says Hatem Mukhlis, head of the Iraqi National Movement, a pro-democracy group that plans to field candidates. "It's a big if. Right now I'd say the answer is no."

A lack of transparency on how elections will be organized and security concerns are high on the list of problems, he says.

But another worry is the "hijacking" of Iraq's fledgling political process by a few dominant powers, including some he says are acting primarily in the interests of next-door neighbor Iran.

Mr. Mukhlis says his concerns that Islamists backed by Iran could end up dominating the country are not new, but are looking more plausible. Referring to a meeting he had with President Bush before returning to Iraq from exile in the US, he says, "I told the president, 'Do we really want to take Iraq out of Saddam's hands only to hand it to Iran on a silver platter?' "

That could be one result of focusing on a date for the elections rather than on solid preparations, he says.

Other Iraqi political leaders say they fear the government of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who has spoken of excluding trouble spots like the city of Fallujah from the elections, is doing so as part of a plan to enhance its own chances of electoral victory and thus retaining power.

"No one is talking yet of boycotting these elections, but what we do have is the prime minister talking about excluding what he calls troubled areas but which happen to be places where his government does not enjoy popularity," says Wamidh Nadmi, a Baghdad political scientist who is organizing a "nationalist" list for the elections.

In this environment, the most important thing to guarantee any elections' legitimacy, Mr. Nadmi says, would be neutral international observers.

He says neither the government nor the US would be seen as unbiased organizers and guarantors of the elections - although he does suggest that perhaps former president Jimmy Carter could be the right leader of an acceptable observer team.

Sadoun al-Dulame, whose center released Thursday's poll, says he's seeing an erosion of public enthusiasm for elections. And like Mr. Nadmi, he wonders if the government might not prefer turmoil.

"When things are in confusion and unsafe, the opportunity is better for the government to restrict information and so restrict alternatives," he says. "I'm afraid they are trying to go for a partial election as a guarantee to hold on to their position."

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