GOP's big-tent goals are tough to fulfill

As cameras panned Madison Square Garden this week, they showed the most diverse group of delegates ever at a Republican National Convention. But converting a bigger tent in New York to more minority votes in November will be a tougher proposition.

Expanding the base is an imperative in national politics, never more so than today's 50-50 nation. And the demographics pose a challenge for Republicans, as minority populations who tend to vote Democratic far outpace the growth of whites.

"If we don't attract more minorities who share our values, we'll eventually be a minority party," says former House Speaker Newt Gingrich - who spoke to two party groups this week on this theme.

A big-tent focus was everywhere on display during convention week, from a record number of minority delegates to inclusive speeches by immigrant Americans such as keynoter Arnold Schwarzenegger. But as candidates head back out on the trail, the reality is that gains will be hard to come by - especially this fall.

"We're seeing Bush get no more than 10 percent of the African-American vote, and no more than 31 percent of Hispanics are expected to support the president - pretty much the same as 2000," says pollster John Zogby of Zogby International.

The Census Bureau projects that the Hispanic population will grow 34.7 percent from 2000 to 2009, making this the fastest growing group in nation. Asians are expected to grow by 33.3 percent, blacks by 12.9 percent. By contrast, whites are expected to grow by 2.8 percent.

The drive to win more of those votes is taking hold. GOP leaders say the number of minority delegates is up 70 percent over 2000. African-Americans, Asian-Americans, and Latinos account for 17 percent of this year's nearly 5,000 delegates, up from 6.3 percent in 1996. It's "a milestone achievement," says Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie.

In their appeals to minority voters this year, Republicans are claiming gains for minorities in home ownership, education, and employment. A new plank in this year's GOP platform, while stopping short of a blanket amnesty for illegal immigrants, offers some of them a path to eventual citizenship. It's controversial among many conservatives, who wanted to see stricter border controls, but they are toning down protests in the interest of unity.

Many speakers this week appealed directly to new immigrants. "To my fellow immigrants listening tonight, I want you to know how welcome you are in this party," said Governor Schwarzenegger Tuesday.

Indiana's GOP contender for the US Senate, Marvin Scott, told delegates Monday his ancestors were "involuntary immigrants," but that "your ancestors fought and died to free mine." "My fellow African-Americans, come home to this party. We're waiting for you with arms wide open."

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