President's task: reforge an old bond

Right after Sept. 11, 2001, George W. Bush was a rock star.

The president's stratospheric job approval ratings - shooting above 90 percent, then settling into the 70s for many months after the attacks - now seem light-years away in a nation deeply divided over Iraq, the economy, and a host of social issues.

But when Mr. Bush addresses the Republican National Convention Thursday night, his campaign is counting on his ability to reach into American living rooms and connect once again. With approval ratings at or just below 50 percent, Bush doesn't need to win back many of those who left his side. But he needs some.

"The key thing he has to do is reestablish an emotional bond with the American people," says Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. "It was that sense of resolve and determination that people responded to."

Another important piece is Bush's ability to come across as a "regular guy," in contrast to his Democratic opponent, John Kerry, convention delegates say.

Beyond the intangible feeling Bush hopes to convey, the president has two important goals in his speech, advisers say. First, he will defend his nearly four years in the White House, an acknowledgment that presidential campaigns involving an incumbent are, foremost, a referendum on his performance. "We're running on the president's record," GOP chairman Ed Gillespie told a Monitor luncheon. At the Democratic convention, "they ran away from Kerry's record [as a senator]."

Bush's record looks like a Rorschach ink blot: To supporters, he has succeeded by aggressively fighting the war on terror, unseating hostile regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, and keeping the US free from attack since 9/11. To detractors, his invasion of Iraq was a rash and costly venture whose central rationale (weapons of mass destruction) has evaporated and which continues to take a heavy toll in American and Iraqi lives.

On the domestic front, Bush faces an uncertain economic recovery and a net loss of jobs since his term began. Gasoline prices have skyrocketed, poverty is up, and the percentage of Americans with health insurance has declined. But federal taxes are down, education spending is up, Bush won passage of a prescription-drug plan for seniors, and unemployment remains below 6 percent.

On Iraq, Bush will seek to reconnect that increasingly unpopular war with the "other" war, the battle against terrorism. The president's performance in the war on terror remains his strongest issue - now back to a solid double-digit lead over Kerry after he had crept up to near parity with the president.

"He's got to reexplain the sense in which Iraq is the main front in the war on terror," says Professor Jillson.

Bush's domestic record will be trickier for him on a range of issues that favor Kerry, including education, the environment, and healthcare.

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