Campaign ads: Who listens?

When John Kerry's campaign promised to go "dark" in August - that is, run no TV ads - to conserve its cash, viewers in key battleground states may have heaved a sigh of relief.

No such luck. The stream of ads touting and trashing both sides has continued unabated, and in some cities, pro-Kerry forces may even be outspending those for President Bush. Senator Kerry's campaign has indeed gone dark, but the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and independent activist groups have filled the breach - most of the time in ways that appear indistinguishable from official campaign ads.

The DNC ad, the first of this election by the party's independent-expenditure wing, which by law cannot coordinate with the Kerry campaign, shows excerpts of Kerry's acceptance speech from the convention and seeks to portray him as a war leader.

The Bush campaign has also launched a new ad, called "Together." It continues the campaign's effort to put forth a more positive message - so no Kerry-bashing - stating that "we're rising to the challenge" of fighting terrorism and growing the economy.

All told, the two campaigns and their allies have spent more than $250 million in ads thus far in an election cycle that features unparalleled intensity, unusually early. And in the end, all this message-mongering sways very few votes.

"Ninety-nine percent of this election is not being decided by TV advertising," says Ken Goldstein, head of a University of Wisconsin project tracking political advertising.

This election is mostly about partisan predisposition, plus events on the ground in Iraq and the direction of the economy, he says. "And so you have an eensy, eensy bit that's going to be decided by the campaign, and some portion of that eensy bit will be decided by political advertising."

But on the heels of the 2000 election, which hinged on a 537-vote margin in Florida, neither the campaigns nor their supporters are taking any chances.

In addition, before undecided voters matter, there's the question of getting decided voters to turn out. Bush political adviser Karl Rove speaks often of the 4 million evangelical voters who didn't turn out in the 2000 race; Democrats also point to pockets of "their" voters - for example, single women - who fail to turn out in the millions. So in fact, much of the ad-making consists of red-meat messages aimed at the already-convinced.

"There's a lot of preaching to the choir going on," says Evan Tracey, president of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group. He notes that when the Bush campaign buys ads on national cable shows that cater to sportsmen, auto-racing fans, gun owners, and Fox News junkies, that's money aimed at getting his people to the polls.

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