Test for Hong Kong 'people power'

A year ago Thursday, Hong Kong was the mouse that roared. The former British colony astounded everyone, including itself, as 500,000 marched through the city in a peaceful protest for democratic rights. Nothing that politically daring had ever happened here before.

Yet Thursday, as the so-called July 1 "people power" movement of Hong Kong takes to the streets in a much anticipated first anniversary, the mouse is less confident. While last year's protest was against city chief executive Tung Che-hwa, things have now changed. The mouse is now dealing with an elephant called China, and it is an elephant that knows how to dance.

Since January, Beijing has steadily increased pressure on Hong Kong. It introduced new "patriotic criteria" for future Hong Kong leaders. It ruled out direct elections for Hong Kong's leaders in 2007, a blow that undercuts the idea of the city's special "autonomy," critics say. Beijing has even requested that marchers in Thursday's rally not shout last July's emblematic slogan: "power to the people," or "return power to the people."

What's more, some democracy leaders who have recently entered into talks with mid-level Beijing officials are now describing a "thaw" with the mainland. At the same time, organizers on the eve of the march are suddenly divided over what Thursday's rally means. Some call it a "celebration." Others insist it is a protest. Even Martin Lee, the patriarch of democracy here, has suggested that marchers act mildly and not shout "power to the people."

Many residents are confused. "My husband is going to march, but I'm not going," says an international lawyer with a US firm. "I'm not sure anyone knows what this protest is about. Is it celebration? Is it a protest? What is it?"

Some analysts say that Beijing is employing "united front" tactics, dividing the Hong Kong movement - in hopes that the turnout Thursday is low.

"Part of the audience for this rally is other people in mainland China," says Perry Link of Princeton University. "If 300,000 actually make it onto the streets in Hong Kong, that's very important as a symbol. People in China will know."

Under the common understanding of the handover, Beijing authorities were to stay away from any intervention in Hong Kong affairs. Some experts here say the government of Mr. Tung, however, handled things so badly that Beijing has had to get involved.

"The Chinese government has a desire so strong that no one can imagine it, that Hong Kong become the best place on earth," says a Hong Kong and Macao affairs officer in Beijing. "Even though we feel this kindness, Hong Kong people don't understand us, which is why we meet with so many of them now."

More largely, the march is seen here as Round 1 in a crucial election this September.

For the first time, that election could give pro-democracy parties an edge in the 60-seat legislature. In recent weeks, sources say, private polls conducted by prodemocracy parties say that Hong Kong residents are worried the democrats are acting "too aggressively" toward mainland China. In an ironic twist, three radio talk-show hosts, who promoted last year's huge march, all quit their jobs in late May; two cited daily death threats as the reason for leaving.

Bishop Joseph Zen is the best-known religious leader in Hong Kong, and plays a central role in the democracy-rights movement. Beijing authorities recently let Bishop Zen visit his native Shanghai after years of refusing him access to the mainland. Still, he says he insists on speaking his mind about Thursday's protest rally, as he did in an exclusive interview with the Monitor.

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