Michael Moore's showing in Show Me State

Despite his glee over reports of political conversions and commitments during viewings of "Fahrenheit 9/11," Michael Moore's impact on the presidential race in Missouri probably will be measured by how loudly the choir sings after its members leave the theater.

In a state where the latest Wall Street Journal Battleground States Poll has President Bush and Democratic contender John Kerry in a dead heat at 48.6 percent to 47.9 percent, even a small number of votes could make a difference. After all, Mr. Bush took Missouri, which has a knack for going with the presidential winner, with 50 percent in 2000.

But interviews, Internet posts, and news reports suggest that most of the thousands of Missourians who saw the movie in its first five days are already anti-Bush. Unless that ratio shifts considerably, it's unlikely that enough undecided voters will see the movie to sway the outcome here - even if all of them shift into Senator Kerry's column.

Some moviegoers are Bush supporters who want to be part of the conversation or to see the movie as entertainment. At the same time, some Democrats and independents are staying away because they don't like the way Moore operates; those who agree with him politically don't always agree with his methods or his arguments. Some moviegoers left believing every word, while even some of his fans saw the film as manipulative.

At the very least, "Fahrenheit 9/11" offers a jolt during the summer political doldrums and has the potential to generate far more energy for Democrats than the predetermined convention in Boston later this month.

The MoveOn.org political action committee struck fast with a national night of volunteer-hosted house parties and meetings last Monday. The hook was a video and online conference featuring Mr. Moore; the goal was to provide concrete ways to get politically active. MoveOn estimates more than 55,000 people took part.

The turnout was higher than organizers expected in the Democratic strongholds of Kansas City, where 125 attendees filled a last-minute house party, and St. Louis, where 300 people met on a University of Missouri campus.

But for MoveOn organizer Matt Ewing, the real shock was the interest in areas usually considered Republican strongholds, such as the standing-room-only meeting in Springfield, Mo., hometown of US Attorney General John Ashcroft. "That's not a place you think of as progressive," says Mr. Ewing.

Two dozen people took the first steps toward turning that energy into activism at the home of Elizabeth Allemann and her husband, Kevin, 15 miles outside Columbia, Mo. The group included three young women who weren't old enough to vote. Asked why they were at the meeting, Dr. Allemann said one explained, "I can't vote but I can pass the word."

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