Russia holds veto on Kyoto treaty

As the world waits, Russians are battling over how Moscow should use its power to make or break the Kyoto Protocol, the international pact to head off global warming.

President Vladimir Putin has been dithering for the past year over whether to ratify the agreement, and thus put Russia in league with more ecology-minded states like Canada and the European Union, or to line up with the more growth-focused nations like the US and Australia that are boycotting it.

During a recent Moscow visit by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Mr. Putin hinted that Russia might soon join the regime, which requires that developed countries reduce their output of the "greenhouse gas" carbon dioxide by 5.2 percent over the 1990 levels in under a decade. But at a Moscow climate change conference last November, Putin shocked scientists by joking that sharp climate changes could be a boon for Russia. "If there is warming in Russia, then we will need to spend less money on fur coats and our grain harvests will increase," he said.

The Kremlin's long-running tease over Kyoto reflects a genuine, unresolved debate concerning the best route for Russia to redevelop its economy back from the massive deindustrialization and contraction that followed the collapse of communism. The debate has intensified ahead of a May 20 deadline for Russian state bodies to advise Putin.

"Opponents of ratifying Kyoto tend to be big businesses who want our economy to remain oriented on fossil fuels and the export of raw materials," says Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, a former environment minister for Russia and current director of the official Institute of Water Problems. "Those who favor ratification want Russia to free itself from dependence on oil exports and get on with postindustrial development."

The consensus in Russia's scientific community appears to be that global warming is a fact, and that spreading industrialization is the likely culprit. Carbon dioxide is mostly produced by burning fossil fuels in industries, thermal power stations, and automobiles.

"Over the past 30 years our winters have become progressively warmer," says Alexander Bedritsky, head of the Russian government's Meteorological and Environmental Monitoring Service. "The most alarming consequence is warming in our permafrost zones, where a change of one or two degrees could melt the soil and threaten houses, roads, and pipelines."

The best-known opponent of joining Kyoto is the Kremlin's official economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, who last month bombastically denounced the treaty as "a global Auschwitz.... The Kyoto Protocol is a death pact, however strange it may sound, because its main aim is to strangle economic growth in countries that accept its requirements."

Page: 1 | 2