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Reality intrudes on US vision for Mideast

Arab hostility to Iraq war and Bush's support of Sharon raises doubts about broader democratic reforms in region.

By Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor / April 26, 2004


National Security adviser Condoleezza Rice says that if there's one thing she sees President Bush become passionate about, it is reform in the Middle East. For the president, political and economic progress in a vast region of Arab and Muslim population he calls the "greater Middle East" is one of the keys to winning the war on terror.

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But just weeks before the Bush administration plans to roll out its greater Middle East initiative at a series of international summits, the plan is in trouble.

Three factors - worse-than-expected violence in Iraq, the president's surprise alignment last week with Israeli leader Ariel Sharon on West Bank settlements and other sensitive issues, and the continuing deterioration of America's image among Arabs - have thrown the plan off and punctured enthusiasm for pursuing it.

For many experts and foreign diplomats involved in the Middle East - and even some US officials skeptical of what they see as the plan's we-know-what-you-need tone - it has become the incredible shrinking Mideast vision. "We've had so many setbacks from so many different directions to what were some fairly radical projects that the prudent response might be to file this initiative in the wastebasket or at least scale it back - and in fact we're seeing some signs of that," says Michael Hudson, an expert at Georgetown University here.

"The rhetoric is still there," adds a European diplomat in Washington, referring to continued administration talk of Middle East democratization. "But on the underlying levels where policy is made, the sentiment is a lot less enthusiastic than it was just some weeks back."

The initiative is still expected to provide the theme for the G-8 summit the White House is hosting in June, and to figure in NATO and US-European Union conclaves the same month. Diplomatic sources say the White House is even considering inviting Arab representatives to the G-8 summit to jump-start the plan. But in the current atmosphere, it might be difficult to get any leaders to attend. "After the most recent developments on the ground, America's credibility is so damaged and there is such hatred that it becomes impossible for the Arab people to accept their leaders considering such an initiative," says an Arab diplomat here.

The US has its hands full with Iraq in ways it hadn't anticipated. Hostility to the US in the region is so intense that the administration is finding that anything marked "made in USA," such as the reform plan, is not well received.

The animosity has been exacerbated by recent events in Iraq - particularly the violence in Fallujah and the standoff with radical Shiites in Najaf. But most devastating to US's image among Arabs was Bush's public acceptance of "realities on the ground" that he said meant some Israeli settlements would remain forever in the West Bank, and that the "right of return" of thousands of Palestinian refugees to lands they lost in Israel was no longer realistic.

Brusqueness from moderate Arabs

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who met with Bush in Texas earlier this month, told the French newspaper Le Monde that "there exists today a hatred [of America] never equaled in the region." And Jordan's King Abdullah, already in the US, abruptly cancelled a scheduled visit to the White House last week.