In Iraq, a 'perfect storm'

Like many, Dodge points to the disbanding of Hussein's 400,000-member army, who largely surrendered, as unwise. "US forces never really controlled the country; they never had enough intelligence assets and the troops on the ground that were needed to impose order,'' he says. "A month after the invasion, the insurgency started to test the Americans, found the hegemon didn't have complete control, and then the insurgency took off."

The fighting has drawn the US into the position that all occupiers want to avoid: combat against a foe scattered among the civilian population. Counterinsurgency in that environment inevitably creates civilian casualties, and even more hostility.

To be sure, the US had few good options, since failing to meet force with force can encourage more attackers.

Now in the spiraling conflict, soldiers are being forced to engage in urban combat not just in Fallujah, but in the nearby Sunni town of Ramadi, in central Baghdad, and near the Shiite shrine city of Najaf. The consequence is looking like aggressors, stirring support for the insurgents.

"What you've got is a conflict between strategy and tactics,'' says Dodge. "The marines go into Fallujah fighting house to house, and since they don't have enough troops and are casualty averse, they're using helicopter gunships. "

Such urban battle, says Gailan Ramiz, a Princeton-educated political scientist at Baghdad University, "can't occur without starting to lose the support of the people."

Dr. Ramiz says the past week has brought into sharp focus political failures, particularly not giving enough authority to Iraqis to build credibility for the Governing Council and reduce the sense inside Iraq that the country is indeed occupied.

"This notion that technocrats with technocratic solutions is what Iraq needs is entirely naive,'' says Ramiz. "It completely ignores the political and cultural spheres. What was needed was real Iraqi leaders."

As the violence continues, there are also signs of trouble among the 25 Iraqis on the Governing Council. Council Member Muhsen Abdel Hamid, in an interview with the Al Jazeera channel, said he was "with the Sadr people, and the people of Fallujah,'' and threatened to resign.

Mr. Hamid leads the Islamic Party, the Iraqi affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood, a movement that arches across the Middle East and wants to see Islamic law take precedence over secular institutions.

For now, Marines continue to fight pitched battles in Fallujah, and have taken control of about 25 percent of the town, according to a spokesman. The death toll of Iraqis there has risen above 150, and Iraqi aid convoys have been pouring towards the city. Meanwhile, Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez vowed US forces would "imminently" retake the southern city of Al Kut, where Mahdi army members chased out a Ukrainian force on Wednesday.

March 28 US-led coalition authorities close Moqtada al-Sadr's newspaper, Al Hawza.

March 31 A guerrilla ambush on two vehicles in Fallujah kills four American military contractors. Images of their mutilated bodies are shown worldwide.

April 3 The arrest of Mustafa al-Yacoubi, a close aide of Sadr and a lieutenant in Najaf, provokes demonstrations and attacks in Baghdad and southern Iraq.

April 4 Dozens of militants belonging to Sadr's Mahdi army move into the governor's office in Basra at dawn the next day. Eight American soldiers are killed in gunfights around Baghdad.

April 7 US bomb hits mosque courtyard wall killing 40 Iraqis, say Iraqi witnesses.

April 8 Shiite Muslim militias hold partial control over three southern Iraqi cities, Kut, Najaf, and Fallujah. Iraqi gunmen kidnap foreign civilians including South Koreans and Japanese.

Sources: AFP, AP. As of Noon, April 8, 2004

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