Tigers key in Sri Lanka vote

A desire for lasting peace tops voter concerns as war-weary Sri Lankans head to the polls for the third time in four years to choose a new parliament.

The government has been paralyzed by a political standoff over how to pursue peace talks with the Tamil Tiger rebels, who are seeking autonomy for ethnic minority Tamils. In February, President Chandrika Kumaratunga sacked the government of her opponent, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, accusing him of giving too much ground in peace negotiations. The animosity between the two leaders and their parties is one of the basic reasons that peace has remained a dream here.

In reality, there are few fundamental policy differences between the two main parties, and both are campaigning heavily on a platform of peace. As a result, the race is predicted to be very close, which may throw the role of kingmaker to smaller parties who could complicate the future government's peace negotiations.

"Whichever group forms the government cannot ignore the mandate it has got from the people," says Jayadeva Uyangoda, head of political science department of Colombo University. "They want to be seen as peacemakers. No party can afford to be seen as not moving ahead with the peace process."

The island's ethnic civil war has claimed the lives of 64,000 people since 1983. While everyone here claims to want an end to the conflict, any bid by the election's winner to deliver a peace deal will face a number of complicating factors, including the demands of coalition partners, division within the rebel ranks, and the end of the president's final term in 2006.

A pre-election survey conducted by the Centre for Policy Alternatives in Colombo indicated that the president's United People's Freedom Alliance will probably end up with more seats in parliament than the prime minister's United National Front (UNF). But the Alliance may not reach the magic figure of 113 seats, an absolute majority in the 225-member parliament.

"The difference between the Alliance and the UNF may not be that great," says Pakiyasothy Saravanamuttu, executive director of the CPA. "The minority parties will have a decisive say in who will form the government."

Ironically, the best suited for this role would be the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), a coalition of several Tamil political parties backed by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). This is the first election since the war's outbreak in which the Tigers have endorsed a party.

The TNA is contesting in the Tamil-dominated north and east of the country. Its candidates say that the party will get at least 23 seats, a claim challenged by other Tamil parties opposing the TNA.

This election is a litmus test for the Tigers and at stake is its claim of being the sole representative of the Tamil community - a claim that has been shaken by a recent split within the guerrilla organization. Last month, a senior Tiger commander in the east, Colonel Karuna, defied the rebel movement's leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran. The split among the rebels has increased pressure on Mr. Prabhakaran's faction in the north to assert its position more firmly.

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