A new space race?

From the time Sputnik first orbited Earth in 1957 to the fall of the Soviet Union 34 years later, Western cooperation in manned spaceflight was cemented by a common ideology and a common foe. Its capstone was the International Space Station.

But today, the United States and Europe, which built the space station, have reached a crossroads as they search for ways to put astronauts on Mars. One path could lead to tighter cooperation, not only between the US and Europe, but also with Russia, China, and other nations interested in manned spaceflight. The other path could lead to an international space race in which the US may find itself still in the lead but increasingly isolated.

The choice could determine how aggressively the world carries out its next round of human space exploration.

Already, efforts at international cooperation are off to a shaky start, suggests Joan Johnson-Freese, a specialist in space and international security at the US Naval War College in Newport, R.I. She notes that President Bush announced in January his moon-and-Mars plan as a done deal and appointed a commission to lay out options for implementing it. Yet none of the potential partners was brought in at the outset, she says.

"Everybody is posturing and rethinking their positions," Dr. Johnson-Freese observes. "The Europeans are beginning to say: 'What are our options?' And there are options. We're not the only game in town" when it comes to launching people into space.

While nations pursue human spaceflight for reasons of national prestige - "No one ever held a parade for a robot," Johnson-Freese says - they're also driven by the fundamental scientific questions that researchers say can be answered only by humans armed with geologists' hammers, drilling rigs, and labs too sophisticated to be wrapped within a robotic rover.

Recent results from the Red Planet have only served to whet their appetites. Over the past two months, the US rover Opportunity has uncovered virtually irrefutable geologic evidence that the Martian surface once hosted bodies of water that could have been suitable habitats for simple life forms.

Perhaps just as intriguing, Europe's Mars Express orbiter reportedly has uncovered preliminary evidence that methane is a tiny but persistent component of the Martian atmosphere.

Without some source to replenish the gas, it would vanish - broken up by the sun's intense radiation. The source could be volcanic. But researchers have yet to see evidence of current volcanic or hydrothermal activity that could account for the methane. Or it could represent the holy grail of Mars exploration: life in the form of microbes living deep beneath a crust porous enough to let their waste methane escape. Researchers are busy trying to confirm the observation and ensure that the initial result wasn't a fluke.

For its part, Europe's project at this point consists of a variety of studies to lay out a vision for human spaceflight that could lead to a European astronaut setting foot on Mars by 2030, explains Franco Ongaro, who heads the effort, known as the Aurora program.

The program, approved in 2002, gave the European Space Agency (ESA) a two-year head start.

It is "meant to prepare Europe's participation in an international endeavor," he says. At such time as Europe is invited to the table to discuss the shape of an international manned moon-Mars program, it will have a range of sophisticated options to lay on the table.

Aurora's blueprint is broadly similar to the plan outlined by the Bush administration. It includes research on Earth aimed at developing power and propulsion systems, and designing habitat modules and life-support systems, and a range of other technologies. It envisions a set of robotic missions - including a Mars orbiter-and-rover package in 2009, a mission to bring back samples in 2011, and demonstrations of ascent and descent modules in 2013.

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