Left gains as Europeans show distaste for austerity

French President Jacques Chirac ordered a government reshuffle Tuesday, casting the future of social and economic reforms into doubt in the wake of a severe electoral setback.

The dilemma he faces as he seeks to pursue painful reforms after a crushing defeat for his party in last Sunday's regional elections is a familiar one:

• In neighboring Germany, Chancellor Gerhardt Schröder's Social Democratic party has dropped to its lowest standing in opinion polls since World War II - 20 percent - after reforms last year that cut unemployment benefits and hiked health costs.

• In Italy, millions stopped work last week in a one-day general strike called by trade unions to protest government plans to raise the retirement age to 60 from 57.

But Europeans seem confused about what they want. Even as French voters punished their leaders for imposing economic reforms, for example, those who wanted the changes to continue outnumbered those who wanted them to stop.

As governments across Europe cut pensions, trim social ser- vices, and ease labor laws to boost their creaking economies, the confusion evident in France is making their reformist task increasingly difficult.

"Most people know that we have to introduce some reforms, but as soon as they are personally affected they change their minds," says Dietmar Herz, a politics professor at Erfurt University in Germany. "They accept the need for structural reform in the abstract, but they reject it in concrete terms."

"The head says yes, but the heart says please, no, never," concurs Jeff Gedmin, head of the Aspen Institute, a US think tank in Berlin.

The French elections handed the opposition coalition of Socialists, Communists, and Greens their most convincing victory in nearly 25 years; they won more than 50 percent of the vote, against 37 percent for the government, to take 25 of the 26 regional governments at stake.

The result was seen as a stark warning to Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, who embarked two years ago on a policy of belt tightening, including a controversial law making people work three years longer for their pensions. President Chirac kept Raffarin in his job Tuesday, but a major cabinet reshuffle was expected to be announced Wednesday, and the future of planned social security cuts was uncertain.

Reformist governments in trouble blame their woes on poor political salesmanship, acknowledging that they have failed to explain properly how painful social costs today fit into a broader vision of greater well-being tomorrow. French Finance Minister François Mer - expected to lose his job this week - was widely criticized for complaining testily last week that the French "are frightened ... and stick their heads in the sand."

One after another, French government spokesmen appeared on television Sunday night to blame the election results on a lack of "pedagogy." After stepping down as leader of his party earlier this month, Mr. Schröder said he hoped his successor would "make it more clear that we need these reform measures to guarantee prosperity in the future."

"If you want to carry out inevitable changes, which means an austerity policy, you have to be Churchillian about it, and call on everyone to put their shoulders to the wheel," says Jean-Luc Parodi, a French political analyst.

But they have to be seen as fair, he adds. "If measures are seen as equitable, there is less of a problem. But when the government cuts taxes, which favors richer people, and then eliminates a public holiday to help balance the budget, that is the last straw."

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