Taiwan's high-stakes election drama

Taiwan is in the midst of a postelection political crisis, with the losing Kuomintang Party staging a noisy sit-in in front of the presidential palace with posters asking "Where's my vote?" As early as Monday, the high court may appoint a judge to decide if evidence exists to block a May 20 inauguration of President Chen Shui-bian.

Sunday's protests followed a dramatic 48 hours in which Mr. Chen weathered a gunshot wound and won by a narrow 30,000 vote margin in the island's third national elections - which were immediately contested by opposition candidate Lien Chan of the Kuomintang (KMT) as being fraudulent. Charges of dirty tricks and conspiracies, has created a sour mood among disgruntled KMT voters and threatens civic confidence.

Still, the elections underscore how far Taiwan has moved toward a politically separate identity from mainland China. And observers say that if the dispute plays out in favor of Chen, who has galvanized voters on a platform of Taiwan sovereignty, Beijing, Washington, and Taipei will need great diplomatic skills to handle the high-tension dynamics expected between them over the next four years. Had the less reform-minded and more pro-China KMT won, relations between China and Taiwan are thought to have been easier to manage.

Beijing has long threatened war if coveted Taiwan moves too far towards a separate status. China's state-run media has so far reported little about the campaign, the assassination attempt, or the outcome. Beijing is waiting for the KMT's legal dispute to be resolved before making official comments, sources say.

Sunday Chen and Mr. Lien met separately with Douglas Paul, head of the American Institute of Taiwan (AIT), the de facto US embassy in Taiwan. Washington, as the security guarantor of Taiwan in its long running dispute with China, carries much influence in Taipei; sources say that the White House has no interest in a protracted election dispute, though it has stopped short of congratulating Chen.

"If [Chen] thinks that this election is a victory mandate and he pushes forward programs [such as a proposed constitution], that will trouble the US," says Taiwan expert Shelley Rigger of Davison College, "the conversations between Chen and AIT will be difficult."

In December, when President Chen proposed Taiwan's first referendum on China, President Bush openly rebuked him during a White House Oval Office meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. Now, say experts, the US must manage its security assurances to Taiwan, and its professed support of the island's rapidly changing conception of itself away from one-party rule - at the same time balancing a US desire for improved relations with a China that is divided between war hawks and moderates on Taiwan.

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