Democrats energized for a big vote
Tuesday's 10-state primary could seal the nomination for Kerry. The race has also forged an unusual sense of party unity.
After more than a year of intense campaigning, and some of the sharpest swings of momentum in political history, the Democratic primary race is nearing a possible conclusion - and in many ways winding up exactly where it began.
If Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts wins all or most of the 10 states voting on Super Tuesday, as polls now predict, he will almost certainly become the Democratic nominee. His main challenger, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, could extend the race by winning one or more states Tuesday. But his chances of actually surpassing Kerry look increasingly remote.
The full-circle evolution - with Mr. Kerry going from original front-runner to near-dead candidate to likely nominee - caps a Democratic battle that has been unusual for both its volatility and its lack of intra-party acrimony. With as many as 10 candidates participating in dozens of televised forums and debates, the race has produced a strikingly unified Democratic electorate that is intently focused on defeating President Bush. It has also altered the nation's political landscape, with media coverage of the Democrats helping to bring down Mr. Bush's approval ratings and setting up what most observers now believe will be a highly competitive general election.
"The most fascinating [aspect of this primary race] is the revitalization among Democratic voters," says Del Ali, an independent pollster. "That's why we've got one heck of a race coming up."
Of course, the primary fight isn't over yet. Mr. Edwards maintains that if he does well enough on Super Tuesday, he can go on to battle Kerry in four Southern states - Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi - that vote the following week.
At a debate Sunday in New York, Edwards signaled his determination to fight on. He took a more aggressive posture against Kerry, casting him repeatedly as a Washington insider. At one point, Edwards seized on a newspaper report that suggested Kerry's proposals would cost more than he says, and, using a Reaganesque line to portray him as the typical politician, noted: "Here we go again."
While polls have Edwards well behind in the Super Tuesday states with the biggest delegate hauls - California and New York - they show him closing in on Kerry in Georgia. And he may have a shot at upsets in Minnesota and Ohio, where the loss of industrial jobs could create an opening for his message on trade. Edwards has also gained the support of some of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's organizers in those states, which could give him an additional boost.
"My sense is [Ohio] will probably be pretty close," says John Green, a political scientist at the University of Akron. Although polls show Kerry doing well among working-class voters, "Edwards's message on trade seems to be really resonating," he says. "There's a possibility that he's making a significant number of converts."
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