Wisconsin: last stand of Kerry rivals?

As the Democratic presidential candidates prepare for Tuesday's primary in Wisconsin, the state where former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean once hoped to mount his comeback may wind up putting Sen. John Kerry out of reach - or, at the least, winnowing the race to two viable candidates.

With polls showing Kerry holding a commanding lead in the Badger State, both Dr. Dean and Sen. John Edwards are facing mounting questions as to how long they can compete. Dean in particular may have difficulty going on if he fails to finish in the top two.

Certainly, Wisconsin could still produce a surprise result. There's a reason both Dean and Edwards have focused intensely on this progressive Midwestern state, which has elected a long line of "outsider" politicians, from "Fighting Bob" LaFollette to current Sen. Russ Feingold.

But analysts here also note that the state has been evolving of late. In many ways, it's become as politically divided as the rest of the country, making it an unpredictable - and dangerous - place for candidates to stake their hopes.

"This is a state that kills campaigns," says John Nichols, editorial-page editor at Madison's Capital Times. "A lot of candidates bet on the state's maverick tradition - and then they lose the bet."

Many say Wisconsin's unique political character, rooted in its geographical isolation, has been gradually fading for decades. The expansion of travel routes and, in particular, the reach of television have brought Wisconsin's politics much more in line with the rest of the country.

"Wisconsin isn't as distinctive as it once was," says John McAdams, a professor of political science at Marquette University in Milwaukee.

Anyone can vote in Tuesday's contest - which, besides adding to its unpredictability, could make it an interesting test case for the general election. In 2000, George W. Bush lost this state to Al Gore by less than 6,000 votes, and analysts say it's certain to be hotly contested in this year's general election as well.

"We are a highly competitive state," says Georgia Duerst-Lahti, a professor of political science at Wisconsin's Beloit College. "In the sense that the country is divided almost equally in half right now, Wisconsin is very much a mirror of that."

By some measures, the state has been moving away from its progressive roots - with union membership on the decline, and a general drift to the right on many cultural issues.

At the West Towne mall in Madison, state employee Richard Evans says that despite the primary buzz, he thinks the state will ultimately go with President Bush. A Vietnam veteran, Mr. Evans is unimpressed with Kerry's war record: "I don't like how he came back and disrespected all the vets, going around with Jane Fonda like that."

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