Pakistan and its proliferator

For millions of Pakistanis it was shocking to see the country's top nuclear scientist on national television Wednesday apologizing for selling nuclear secrets to Libya, Iran, and North Korea, and exonerating their country's political and military leadership. Thursday, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf granted Abdul Qadeer Khan clemency for his "unauthorized proliferation."

Throughout the past three decades, the "Father of the Islamic bomb" has appeared on Pakistani TV screens receiving medals and honors. His public mea culpa this week is seen by many here as an effort - privately endorsed by Washington - to protect Mr. Musharraf, a key ally in the war on terrorism.

"Dr. A.Q. Khan has been made a scapegoat for the people behind the scene. Everything was controlled by the generals and not the scientists," says Hisam-ul Haq, the brother of one of Khan's aides who is now in custody.

The prevailing view is that the US is willing to accept Khan's explanation, plus the dismantling of his global nuclear merchandising network, because it's preparing to launch an offensive against Al Qaeda and Taliban elements along the Afghan border, say US and Pakistan officials, in hopes of capturing Osama bin Laden. If Musharraf's government were to be connected to Khan's nuclear deals, the US might be forced under existing nonproliferation law to impose sanctions on Pakistan at a moment when it most needs the South Asian nation's help.

"The Bush administration does not want to put further pressure for conducting a very open investigation because Musharraf and the Pakistani army is a key ally, and it does not want to lose its ally," says Aisha Siddiqua, a defense analyst in Islamabad.

A Pakistani official in Washington confirms that the coming "spring offensive" against Al Qaeda redoubts is now the priority and neither country wanted the Khan revelations to trouble pursuit of counter terrorist actions.

Those close to the Pakistani position say that it was recent decisions by recipient countries of Pakistan's nuclear know-how and building blocks - specifically Libya and Iran - to open up to the US and the international community about their nuclear programs that forced the Pakistani government to act now.

As one Pakistani-American close to the embassy in Washington says, "They knew the origin of some of this technology was going to come out with the Americans in Libya and Iran opening its doors as well, so they had to formulate some explanation. But it had to be done," he adds, "in a way that it wouldn't damage relations."

Even so, Western diplomats suggest that the matter will not be considered finished, and that some have serious questions about past contacts between Al Qaeda and Khan and his associates.

Of particular concern are allegations that Khan or his subordinates may have advised Al Qaeda members in the city of Kandahar, Afghanistan, on how to construct a "dirty bomb." Such a bomb, using conventional explosives to disperse radioactive material in densely populated areas, would be far short of a weapon of mass destruction, but it could cause numerous casualties and financial damage nonetheless.

"This would be a very attractive weapons for Al Qaeda, because it is simple, it denies their enemy the use of a high-value installation or a piece of property, and it causes extreme economic damage," says the Western diplomat, privately. "As a physical threat, dirty bombs are somewhat overstated. If one of these is released in a crowd, some people may receive levels of radiation that cause them fatal injury. Others may be affected with chronic severe health problems, while others are not affected at all. This is not a weapon of mass destruction. This is a nuisance weapon."

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