Kerry's quest to clinch it

As he heads into tuesday's crucial round of Democratic primaries, John Kerry is facing the first multistate test of his strength as the Democratic front-runner - and an opportunity to all but clinch his hold on the party's nomination.

If the Massachusetts senator can dominate - or sweep - all seven contests, scattered across a diverse mix of mostly Southern and Western states, he would quiet questions about the breadth of his appeal, and generate an influx of money and momentum that could make him difficult to stop.

But if his rivals can pull off enough individual victories to muddy the results, it could lead to a protracted slog that becomes more about delegate accumulation than early state trophies.

Already, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is trying to prolong the competition by essentially ceding the Feb. 3 states to his rivals and focusing instead on states that will vote next Saturday - Michigan and Washington - and beyond. Yet Dr. Dean's efforts in those states may prove too little too late unless Mr. Kerry's momentum is slowed first by another contender, such as Sen. John Edwards or retired Gen. Wesley Clark.

In many ways, Kerry has spent the past week running what looks more like a general election campaign than a primary battle - flying in for brief visits to all seven states - while his opponents have hunkered down in states where they feel they can best compete.

Though this has created a far greater challenge for Kerry, analysts say a strong showing would solidify his status as the front-runner, allowing him to claim an across-the-board appeal among different regions and constituencies.

"You have to be able to demonstrate some degree of broad support," says Jim Guth, a political scientist at Furman University in Greenville, S.C. South Carolina may be the biggest test, he adds, given its mix of African- Americans and moderate whites. Although polls show Senator Edwards, who has declared the state a must-win for his candidacy, holding a narrow lead, Kerry remains well within striking distance. "If [Kerry] wins here, it's all over," says Professor Guth.

Certainly, the race so far has demonstrated the power of momentum. Although Kerry had spent significantly less time and money in the Feb. 3 states than his top rivals - and had virtually no campaign organization in many of them before this week - he is now the man to beat, with his surprise wins in Iowa and New Hampshire catapulting him to the top of the polls in nearly every state.

In the day's biggest contests, polls show Kerry holds commanding leads in Missouri and Arizona, while he has closed the gap with Edwards and Clark in South Carolina and Oklahoma, respectively.

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