Already, GOP framing a Kerry fight

Part of the challenge Kerry would face, analysts say, is how to put his entire record in perspective. It would be easy for the Republicans to take Kerry statements and votes out of context, and paint a picture of him that Democrats would find unfair. The Democrats' challenge would be to counter that effectively. By some measures - such as the ranking system of Americans for Democratic Action (ADA) - Kerry is among the most liberal members of the Senate. Over the course of his Senate career, Kerry gets a 92 percent rating from the ADA, while Edward Kennedy (D), the senior senator from Massachusetts, has a 90 percent career rating. Kerry can rebut this analysis by noting that he voted for welfare reform, budget caps, education reform, and the 2002 Iraq war resolution.

"Probably the best [Republican] argument against Kerry would seek to depict him as a man of contradiction and flip flops, who is all things to all people, who is really mixed up on foreign policy and defense, [and] appears to be a grand statesman and strategist, when in fact his views go whichever way the wind blows," says Arnold Steinberg, a Republican strategist in California.

Of all the Democrats running for the nomination, Mr. Steinberg sees North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as the biggest threat, foremost because he is from the South, which has produced the last two Democratic presidents.

"It is uncertain [to] what extent a Southerner could bring the South back into the Democratic fold," says Steinberg. But Edwards is "glib, bright, good on his feet. I think in many ways he's more of a charmer than any other.... He has an engaging personal appeal. I think that when George W. Bush comes into a room he connects with people. Edwards can connect with those people."

Many political observers see a Kerry-Edwards ticket as a possibility, rather than seeing Edwards at the top of the marquee, because Kerry is older, more experienced in politics and national issues, and projects more gravitas. Many Republicans are quick to add that they expect a close race no matter who the nominee is - noting the bright-line distinctions on the issues.

"Senator John Kerry, like all the Democrats, would like to roll back progress that's been made on the economy, economic recovery, tax cuts for all Americans and for small businesses, which create an enormous number of jobs in our country ..., [and the] war on terrorism, the war in Iraq, homeland security," says Gentry Collins, the deputy chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa "There are very stark contrasts. Ultimately the American people, especially the people of Iowa, will view the leadership of President Bush as essential to moving our country forward."

• Staff writers Alexandra Marks and Sara B. Miller contributed to this report.

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