The twilight of the tyrants

Almost all the energy-rich nations in the Middle East and Central Asia figure on Freedom House's list as among the least free in the world. At the same time, 37 of the 49 "not free" countries have an average per capita income of less than $1,500 a year. The group makes its list on the basis of characteristics such as the vibrancy of civil society, the independence of the media, and the fairness of elections.

Whether they buy off their populations with improvements in their living standards, or simply impose themselves by force, autocratic regimes at both ends of the wealth scale "terrorize the few to get compliance from the many, and co-opt people whose fear makes them comply," says Peter Ackerman, head of the Center on Nonviolent Conflict in Washington.

The world seems to be growing less tolerant of dictators, and readier to hold them accountable for their crimes. The United Nations now has special war-crimes tribunals for Rwanda, Yugoslavia, and Sierra Leone, and is creating a special court for Cambodia.

"It's becoming riskier to be a dictator and engage in gross abuses of human rights," argues Aryeh Neier, President of the Open Society Institute, founded by financier George Soros to encourage democracy around the world.

A growing number of former heads of state have been indicted or put on trial, he points out, including Mr. Milosevic, Argentine Generals Rafael Videla and Leopoldo Galtieri, Liberian leader Charles Taylor, Chadian dictator Hissan Habre, and Jean Kambanda, a former Rwandan prime minister, who was convicted of genocide.

Not that this necessarily means demo- cratic values are closely enough woven into the fabric of modern societies that dictatorships are heading for extinction, suggests Fareed Zakaria, an author and former editor of Foreign Affairs magazine.

"The kind, of regimes that Saddam Hussein or Hitler ran are a thing of the past," he says. "But there is a sort of netherworld now - it's uncomfortable to be a dictator, but that doesn't mean democracy has triumphed," complete with all the institutions that support it.

"There is not deep democracy in many parts of the world," agrees Mr. Neier, pointing to Latin America, where "it seems awfully fragile" - in part because many newly elected leaders have disappointed their voters by imposing economic austerity measures. The economic upheavals that have shaken Russia since the end of communism, leaving millions feeling worse off than in the old days, have given democracy a bad name there, too.

Elsewhere, notably in the former Soviet Union's Central Asian republics, politicians have won elections (not always fairly) but then done nothing to develop other building blocks of democracy, such as a free press and an independent judiciary.

"They are elected autocrats," says Mr. Zakaria, referring to leaders such as Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe and Azerbaijan's Ilham Aliyev. "Maybe that's the form new dictatorship takes, through leaders who have found a way to use the symbols of legitimacy of the modern age. They embrace one element of democracy - elections - and forgo all the others." And then, often enough, they resort to rigging elections.

"The one indicator you have that a country is democratic is rotation in office - the unseating of leaders within a decade," says Mr. Ackerman.

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