Snow snuffs Kashmir's war fires

[Editor's note: The original version did not include Owais Tohid's byline.]

With her father on his deathbed hundreds of miles away in India, Rana Anwer was desperate to see him one last time. "Your father's last wish is to see you," her relatives said.

But at that time, six weeks ago, India and Pakistan were still shelling each other along their 780-kilometer Line of Control in the divided state of Kashmir. In such a tense atmosphere, Rana knew the Indian government would not issue a Pakistani citizen like her a visa.

Eventually, Rana heard from her Indian relatives that her father had died - his last wish unmet.

Today, for thousands of divided families like Rana's, hopes are beginning to rise, as India and Pakistan's weeklong cease-fire shows signs of holding. Artillery guns remain silent, and diplomats Monday in Delhi will begin talks on restoring air, bus, and rail links between the two South Asian rival nations. In a goodwill gesture, Pakistan Sunday lifted a ban on Indian flights over its airspace.

But while Indian and Pakistani observers welcome the cease-fire, many suggest that the current peace has more to do with weather conditions than any substantial change in policy by either nation. Each winter, the upper valleys of Kashmir state become snowed under, making infiltration by foreign insurgents and military activities by either country impossible. In this context, many observers say the real test will come this spring when the snows melt, or if there is another provocative terrorist attack.

"Both sides are trying to take credit in the international media for things that do not cost anything, that do not involve any strategic shift by either side," says Ajai Sahni, director of the Institute for Conflict Management, a conservative think tank in New Delhi.

Khalida Ghaus, an international relations professor at University of Karachi, agrees. "The main problem to me is not the Kashmir problem. The main issue is the mistrust and distrust that prevails on both sides. There has to be a cord of trust between Islamabad and New Delhi, otherwise these gestures of goodwill will bring no results, like the past."

If there is skepticism, it is mainly because the subcontinent's history is littered with cease-fires that have failed. In November 2000, Pakistan announced a cease-fire that ended in May the following year. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf followed this up soon after with another cease-fire, and agreed to visit the Indian city of Agra for a summit with his counterpart, Atal Vajpayee. After a few days, these talks failed, with neither side willing to change its position.

The positions of India and Pakistan have changed little in the 56 years since the partition of India into Muslim-majority Pakistan and Hindu-majority India. The northern state of Kashmir was the flashpoint for their first war in 1947, when Pakistani insurgents, later backed by Pakistani troops invaded.

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