The Democrats' dilemma

The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is far from over. There are two long months to go before the first votes are cast in the first nominating contest, the Iowa caucuses. A sizable portion of the Democratic electorate has never heard of many of the candidates.

And among the first spate of primaries, there is no clear common leader: Dick Gephardt is ahead by a nose in Iowa; Howard Dean is way out front in New Hampshire; and John Edwards and Wesley Clark are neck and neck in South Carolina.

But there is a growing sense of inevitability among many political observers that, barring some unforeseen event or revelation, Dr. Dean will win the Democratic nomination. The former governor of Vermont got a boost last week from two major union endorsements, and from his announcement that he will forgo the federal limits on fundraising and try to go head to head financially against President Bush - a show of confidence that his supporters will write more checks and push the send button on more Internet donations.

In the wider Democratic universe, however, the prospect of a Dean nomination has sent some party members into paroxysms of private hand-wringing. Not only do they see him losing badly to Bush, they also see Dean hurting Democratic candidates further down on the ticket - rippling into congressional races, and possibly even boosting Republican control of the 100-seat Senate close to the crucial threshold of 60 seats, which would make it filibuster-proof.

"We could come perilously close to a one-party state," says a longtime Democratic activist with no formal ties to any campaign. "We could wind up with two more Antonin Scalias [on the Supreme Court]," he adds, referring to one of the most conservative justices.

Some big-name Democrats have begun to speak openly about Dean's vulnerabilities as a potential nominee. In a Washington Post interview published Monday, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D), who has not endorsed any candidate, says if Dean is nominated, he will have to work hard to show that he's as tough as Bush in handling the war on terrorism. Of the leading Democratic candidates, Dean is the only one to oppose the war with Iraq - the issue that energized his candidacy in the first place. He also has less experience in defense and foreign policy.

On the flip side, some Republicans - also seeing Dean as their likely opponent - are warning against hubris, and putting out the word that Dean must be taken seriously. Bush political guru Karl Rove still insists, in public at least, that the 2004 race will be close. Robert Kagan, a former Reagan administration foreign-policy official, argues at length why Dean is no George McGovern, who lost big to President Nixon in 1972.

In a memo last month, two Portland-based GOP pollsters warned that "Howard Dean can win because he believes in what he is saying, because he can semi-legitimately spin his record as governor into one of fiscal conservatism, and because he comes across as if he actually cares about people."

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