Al Qaeda's new tactic: deception and denial

Al Qaeda foot soldiers seem to be everywhere. They are now claiming responsibility for the Saturday bombing in Saudi Arabia. They say they are flocking into Iraq to fight the US "occupation." They claim they were behind the massive power failure in the northeast quadrant of the US this past summer. Some may even have penetrated Camp Delta at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, which houses Taliban and Al Qaeda prisoners.

Are they really capable of pulling off all these deeds? Or is it just what they'd like everyone to believe?

Several experts and government officials say it may be part of a concerted strategy of deception and denial.

After years of watching Al Qaeda's operations, they say one of the group's signatures is to be enigmatic - sowing enough uncertainty that it looks as if they're behind every misdeed - thus keeping their pursuers off balance.

"This suits their purposes very well on a number of different levels," says Bruce Hoffman, an expert on terror at the RAND Corp.

For one thing, the claims throw officials off. While the US ties up its resources and energy in Iraq, for example, Al Qaeda may be conducting operations - like the bombing in Saudi Arabia - in other countries, or planning another spectacular attack in the US. The "who did it" scenarios occupy authorities in endless debates over whether a hard-core Al Qaeda leadership is directing all the attacks, or whether it's loosely associated groups acting on their own, or freelancers responding to the call to join a jihad.

For example, it's still not clear that Al Qaeda was behind the attacks in Saudi Arabia, nor if they're all that active in Iraq.

"We haven't seen anything definite that [Al Qaeda]" is behind the attacks in Saudi Arabia, says a senior intelligence official. He adds that it is unusual for Al Qaeda to attack only other Arabs, as was the case in the Riyadh bombing on Saturday.

Moreover, Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the commander of US forces in Iraq, said earlier this week that up to 20 people had been detained in Iraq on suspicion of links to Al Qaeda. But he also said they don't have proof of those links.

The officials and experts say that's what Al Qaeda wants - the US totally focused on Iraq, so it isn't paying attention to what the leadership is doing. "For [Osama bin Laden], the final battle won't be fought in Baghdad," says Mr. Hoffman. "It will be fought in New York or Washington."

While intelligence officials - including the directors of both the FBI and CIA - continue to warn of another catastrophic attack in the US, they also claim to be making progress against the nefarious network. Officials say two-thirds of Al Qaeda's leadership has been captured or killed, and some 3,000 foot soldiers have been detained in nearly 100 countries. They've also cut into the network's finances.

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