Why recall vote may hinge on party unity
A new poll in California shows GOP vote is spread among field. Among Democrats, some oppose any candidacy from their party.
In the chaotic California recall battle, a fundamental factor is emerging as more significant than either the record of Gov. Gray Davis, or the colorful array of candidates vying to replace him: partisan unity.
With a new survey showing Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante running slightly ahead of Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger among possible replacement candidates to Mr. Davis - despite a vast deficit in name recognition and star power - the recall election may be turning into a test of which party can present a more cohesive front. The challenges for both sides: consolidating support behind a single contender, and getting more voters to the polls.
Certainly, both parties are struggling with internal divisions. Some Democratic leaders remain opposed to Mr. Bustamante's candidacy, seeing any Democrat on the ballot as undermining the effort to fight the recall, while others regard him as their party's best hope.
But increasingly, it's Republicans who are facing the deeper rifts. With at least four credible candidates on the ballot - including businessman Bill Simon, state Sen. Tom McClintock, and former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth - the party may wind up diluting its vote enough to prevent its front-runner, Mr. Schwarzenegger, from winning.
It's a divide that may prove extremely difficult to bridge. Analysts point out that the Democratic split is essentially over tactics, with the two sides disagreeing over how best to keep control of the governorship. The GOP clash, by contrast, goes to the heart of party philosophy, with the conservative and moderates wings at odds over which sort of candidate and platform to support.
"The split on the Republican side is ideological. The split on the Democratic side is not. And ideological divisions are harder to heal than nonideological ones," says Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California at Berkeley.
Democrats have already managed to minimize some of their party's divisions. With Bustamante the only prominent Democrat on the ballot (Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi originally announced his intention to run, but was quickly induced to change his mind), the party is coalescing around a "vote no on recall, yes on Bustamante" strategy.
Of course, the two sides may continue clashing over where the bulk of the party's resources should be spent - fighting the recall or promoting Bustamante. Many Davis supporters worry Bustamante's campaign will inevitably dilute the party's anti-recall message.
"Cruz Bustamante's decision to get on the ballot undercut a powerful argument from a mass-media standpoint - which was that this is purely a Republican coup," says Phil Trounstine, director of the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University, and a former communications director for Davis.
But the Democratic disagreements seem relatively minor compared with the division dogging the GOP - a split analysts say has cost the party in recent statewide elections, and may do so again.
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