Bombs blasting road to peace

President Bush's plan for Middle East peace hasn't been destroyed by this week's sudden surge in Israeli-Palestinian violence. But the prospects for its advance have almost certainly been heavily damaged.

If nothing else, the circular relationship of Mr. Bush, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, and Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has changed radically in the past few days.

For perhaps the first time, Bush appears genuinely frustrated by an Israeli action - the failed assassination attempt on Hamas leader Abdel Aziz Rantisi. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abbas seems weaker, his status as an equal partner in negotiations damaged by his inability to restrain Hamas or influence his Israeli counterpart.

Wednesday's explosion on a Jerusalem bus - followed by Israel's instant and deadly response - demonstrates the difficulties of keeping the negotiations on track. Indeed, the defining moment for the Bush administration's peace effort may now be at hand.

Absent a strong intervention that convinces both parties that revenge is not in their best interest and that the hard-line elements on both sides must be controlled, the Bush road map may join a lengthy list of US mediation efforts that began well, but then....

"Without [Bush] being engaged, nothing will happen and the situation will get worse," says Hermann Eilts, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Egypt who is now a professor emeritas at Boston University.

For Abbas, Bush's message might be that the Palestinian leader should not give up, and that he needs to try to keep building a security structure which will, at some point, supplant or control Hamas and other radical Palestinian elements.

For Prime Minister Sharon, the US message might be blunter: Let Abbas have time to work. The new Palestinian prime minister has neither the power nor the inclination to confront Hamas now and start a Palestinian civil war. "My instinct says the US president is getting educated on the subtleties of how these sides provoke [each other]," says Marc Gopin, a Middle East expert at Tufts University's Fletcher School in Medford, Mass.

The latest cycle of violence began last week when Israel assassinated two Hamas members. Then, unusual coordinated attacks by Hamas and other hard-line Palestinian groups killed five Israeli soldiers.

It accelerated Tuesday when Israeli helicopter gunships wounded Hamas spokesman Rantisi and killed a bodyguard and bystander.

Then it exploded horrifically Wednesday, when a suicide bomber blew up a bus in Jerusalem, killing at least 15 and injuring at least 65.

In Washington, Bush condemned Wednesday's attack in "the strongest possible terms." He had earlier said that he was "deeply troubled" by Israel's attempt on Rantisi's life. He told reporters he did not feel the strike would help Israeli security, and that it could weaken Abbas.

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