Despite talk of diplomacy, US-N. Korea standoff hardens

Well-placed sources point out that the North in recent weeks has been alienating many of the strong supporters it used to have in China and Russia. Wang Yi, for example, long a formidable presence in the Chinese foreign-policy structure who sided with the North, has reportedly backed away from his old position.

"China has been gradually adopting the idea that only multilateral talks can solve this dispute," argues Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Communist Party School in Beijing. "The North has publicly declared it owns nuclear capability in the [Beijing] trilateral talks, and this is something that bears on China's national interest as well."

During the three-way talks in Beijing, a North Korean diplomat stated with Chinese officials present that the North is reprocessing plutonium fuel rods that had long been under observation by UN inspectors. North officials also said in the meeting, and repeated last week to the delegation headed by Rep. Curt Weldon (R) of Pennsylvania, that even if it achieves a diplomatic deal, it wishes to keep some weapons-grade material.

Since October, North Korea's nuclear aims have flummoxed US diplomats and Asian leaders. The US and the North have been at loggerheads, while Kim Jong Il has steadily adopted a nuclear posture by kicking out UN inspectors, unsealing 8,000 plutonium fuel rods, and conducting a steady drumbeat of threats. The resulting crisis is the worst in Korea since the early 1990s, and has started a new military rhetoric of self-defense in Japan, caused a sharp trade and investment decline in South Korea, and created a vexing challenge to US leadership and security roles in the north Pacific.

In addition, it comes as the US conducts a global force realignment that has high significance for Asia, and Korea in particular. The Pentagon is moving rapidly to shut down some two dozen small bases along the demilitarized zone established after the Korean War. The US troop presence is likely to be smaller and to be concentrated in two "hubs" at Osan and Taegu, below the Han River. The changes are in keeping with the flexibility and rapid reaction strategy favored by the Pentagon; US military officials use a football metaphor, saying they would much prefer to act as a linebacker moving up and down the DMZ in case of an attack. The move is sensitive in both Koreas, since Seoul desired changes only after the nuclear issue was resolved, and experts say Pyongyang could interpret the changes as a prelude to US punitive attacks should diplomacy fail.

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