Turkey imperils US war strategy

A US-led war in Iraq without Turkey as a pivotal ally was once a remote possibility. But months of prickly negotiations between Washington and Ankara are coming to a head and the US is dangerously close to its first setback - one that would force drastic changes in the war plan, military officials say.

Already 30 to 40 US cargo ships are either waiting off the Turkish coast or scheduled to arrive there soon, officials say. The Bush administration says Turkey must decide Friday whether tens of thousands of US troops can be stationed here.

On the surface, the two countries are stuck haggling over dollars. Turkey wants more aid for an economy shattered by the first Gulf War. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Wednesday that the US can't double its offer: $6 billion in grants and $20 billion in loan guarantees.

But even if Turkey were to get everything on its wish list - including a buffer zone for refugees and Kurdish guerrillas - strong antiwar feelings here might be Washington's toughest obstacle.

"[Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of Turkey's ruling party,] says he still has military and political concerns that aren't satisfied. If that's the case, clearly, kicking in another 4 billion just ain't gonna cut it," says Bulent Aliriza, the director of the Turkey Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"It's not just a matter of numbers - it's philosophical," he says of Mr. Erdogan's AK [Justice and Development] Party, a movement rooted in political Islam that won by a landslide in November.

"Many of the people in the AK Party feel that the US is conducting war on the Muslim world, and it may be that no matter what, it wouldn't have worked," says Dr. Aliriza.

While not a deal-breaker, a refusal by Turkey to allow basing for the Army's Fourth Infantry Division could delay a US assault. It would also likely require US commanders to reshuffle their ground forces, at least temporarily replacing a heavy armored division with lighter forces that lack a similar punch.

"They would have to change their entire strategy as a result," says one US military official.

Some 20 to 30 US cargo ships bound from Texas ports and another 10 headed from Northern Europe are carrying 4.5 million sq. ft. of cargo including tanks, trucks, and other heavy equipment for the 16,000-strong division.

It would take 18 to 21 days to divert these ships from the eastern Mediterranean to Kuwait via the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, with additional delays possible from winter high seas and traffic in the Suez Canal. The roll-on, roll-off cargo ships of the ready reserve fleet travel at about 14 to 16 knots. Once in Kuwait, finding pier space to offload the cargo, and additional staging grounds, could also take time, officials say.

War strategy would also change, as the 4th Infantry Division would be replaced by lighter US ground forces such as Marines or Army airborne infantry that would be flown into northern Iraq.

"There would be some vertical implant of ground troops," says retired Rear Adm. Stephen Baker, a senior fellow at the Center for Defense Information in Washington. "We have looked at the option of using airfields in northern Iraq," he says.

Such forces, however, would lack the heavy armor and firepower intended to spearhead a strike at the Iraqi Army's northern flank as other US troops move in from the south.

A powerful pincer movement is vital to forcing Saddam Hussein to array the Iraqi military to fight on two fronts. In addition, a US ground assault in northern Iraq is crucial to securing Iraqi oilfields and quelling possible infighting among Kurdish factions living in northern Iraq and along Turkey's southern border, according to military analysts and officials.

Page: 1 | 2