Sharon win underscores Israelis' insecurity

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's resounding election victory Tuesday reshaped Israel's political map. It also handed Mr. Sharon a strong mandate to continue his hard-edged approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Mr. Sharon's triumph almost doubled his party's seats. By contrast, the Labor party, closely associated with the peace process, suffered its worst defeat ever, prompting speculation about its future. Benefiting from Labor's slide, a secular party named Shinui has emerged as a potent new political force.

Sharon's first challenge is to create a coalition government within the next 28 days, a period that will see frantic horse-trading as parties vie for a slice of power. In this process, as in the election, Sharon may get a helping hand from beyond his borders.

"The next war in the Gulf was very present in the consciousness of the voters," says Joseph Alpher, former head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv. "People made the decision that they wanted to stick with a steady old war horse to guide the state through rocky seas, someone who's a good friend of President [Bush]."

With the threat of a regional war looming, Mr. Alpher notes that it will be easier for Sharon to apply pressure - particularly on Labor, which has said it will not join a Likud-led unity government - to help him build the coalition he wants.

It was a note Sharon sounded in his victory speech to jubilant supporters. "This is not a time for celebration," he said grimly. "This is a time for unity." That was a theme the prime minister repeatedly stressed as he positioned himself and the Likud in the political center, a canny move that boosted the party's presence in the 120-seat Knesset from 19 to 37 by pulling voters away from both the left and right.

His call for unity holds great appeal for Israelis worn out by their local conflict and skittish about a regional one.

They cast their ballots on a chilly, uneventful day, with a record low turnout of 68.5 percent. As part of its security measures, the army sealed off the Palestinian territories. Last-minute security warnings in the newspapers told voters not to bring bags or packages to polling stations.

The warnings were a fitting, 11th-hour reminder that the election's central issue remained security, despite a tattered economy and rising unemployment. During his first campaign, Sharon said he would bring "peace and security."

This time around, Sharon simply stressed the security. And whatever the reality, "people want a strong leader and Sharon fits that image," says Alpher.

The security issue cut the other way for the Labor party, which slid from 26 to 19 seats. For the first time since its predecessor was founded in 1930, Labor is no longer a major political force.

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