If US fights alone, cost goes up
As rift with France and Germany widens, the prospect rises of unilateral war on Iraq.
If the United States ultimately follows through on its growing threats to sidestep the United Nations and launch a war with Iraq, some of the immediate consequences are easy to sketch.
The war would be more expensive for Americans, in terms of tax dollars and likely casualties, even if the effort included some help from a "coalition of the willing." The US would also have a more dominant role in forging a postwar Iraq.
But a Middle East war in which the US goes it largely alone, with Britain, could have wider implications for the global community and the rules that have helped to guide the world on the use of force for the past 50 years, some experts say.
"This case has the potential to be a historic turning point, [one that could] really strike a blow to the deeper order that's been in place since World War II," says Charles Kupchan, an international relations expert at Georgetown University in Washington.
In fact, while the Bush administration has sought to put the focus on UN impotence in dealing with "rogue states," a likely outcome in this case would be greater global attention on the exercise of American power.
Other countries, chafing at the predominant role of American power in the world today, already appear to be trying to develop a counterbalance. The French, who refer to the US as the world's "hyperpower," hope to develop a "European stance" for next week's crucial UN meetings on the Iraqi crisis.
With world opinion lining up in opposition to a war, the French are having some success in their efforts to forge a counterweight to US power. Under pressure from France and Germany, NATO on Wednesday put off a decision on a US request for alliance assistance in the event of a war with Iraq. On Monday, UN weapons inspectors deliver a report on Iraqi cooperation with their work to the UN Security Council. Then on Wednesday the council will debate the report - with France and Russia arguing the inspections need more time and only the council can make a decision for war.
In this context, a US war would also prompt deep delving into why the UN model has failed at the job of guiding the use of force in the world.
This doesn't mean there is no potential upside for America's position in the world. The view of some policymakers within the Bush administration is that a quick war that ousts Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and allows for the democratization of Iraq will bring new stability to a volatile region and enhance the chances for American-style ideals to spread in the Middle East. For these officials, it is a resistance to enhanced US prestige that partly motivates countries that would oppose a US war.
Few experts envision a scenario under which a war with Iraq leads to a rewriting and reinforcement of the international rules on the use of force.
"The international system the world set up after World War II to apply the rule of law to the use of force is collapsing, and the use of force against Iraq would highlight that collapse as nothing else," says Michael Glennon, a professor of international law at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Somerville, Mass. "But if a war is quick and successful for the US, chances are there won't be a groundswell of support for formulating a new set of rules."
Of course, any war with Iraq was destined to be an American-commanded and predominantely US-fought intervention under any circumstances. But it is the global perception of whether it is a US fighting solo or with the backing of the international community that will matter, experts say.
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