Unintended consequences of war

Any use of massive violence such as that Washington is now threatening against Iraq is a terrible thing.

Everything we know about violence gives two clear lessons. First, the use of force always has unintended - often quite unpredictable - consequences. And second, war in the modern era always disproportionately harms civilians.

For these two reasons, there is a strong presumption in international law and international custom against any easy or voluntary recourse to war. War is still allowed in international law, yes - but only for self-defense, and only as a very last resort, after all avenues for peaceful resolution of differences have been exhausted.

Mr. President, you have no such justification for the war you now threaten against Iraq. There is still time to stand down the huge US expeditionary force and return to some version of the mix of containment and deterrence that has proved successful against Iraq until now - as it did against the much more threatening Soviet Union in an earlier era. Turn back from this war before its consequences come back to haunt you and the rest of the world.

Consequences that may be unpredictable? Ask Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon what happened after he launched a massive assault against Lebanon in 1982. That campaign had two key similarities to the one you now threaten against Iraq. It was a war of "choice," not one imposed on Israel by other powers like some of its other wars. Secondly, Mr. Sharon's campaign aimed explicitly at bringing about "regime change" in Lebanon, as yours promises to do in Iraq.

At the military level, Sharon's warriors succeeded. Within two months, they controlled half of Lebanon including the capital Beirut. They forced Yasser Arafat's Palestinian guerrillas to leave the country, and "persuaded" Lebanon's parliament to vote in Israeli ally Bashir Gemayel as their new president.

Politically, however, Sharon's campaign did not go well. The continued presence of Israeli forces in the country catalyzed the birth of a new, much more militant Lebanese Muslim group called Hizbullah. Mr. Gemayel was assassinated.

Before 1982 ended, Israel was seeking to reduce its footprint in Lebanon. But it was unable to deal with the resistance that its presence provoked, and ended up staying in Lebanon an additional 18 years.

Israel (and Lebanon) bled profusely for all those years. (And the Palestinians? Their national movement simply changed its form. In 1987, it launched its first serious uprising - "intifada" - inside Gaza and the West Bank.)

No one in Israel today gives a favorable verdict to Sharon's 1982 campaign. One can only wonder how Americans 20 years from now will judge the results of a US war on Iraq.

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