Days wane for African 'big men'

On a continent where leaders often leave office only when overthrown or killed, Friday's election to choose the successor to Kenya's President Daniel arap Moi is being billed as a watershed event.

Kenyans are headed to the polls in an election where opposition leader Mwai Kibaki is expected to claim victory over Moi's handpicked successor, Uhuru Kenyatta.

Prohibited by Kenya's Constitution from running again, President Moi, one of Africa's "big men" - independence-era leaders who soon began confusing themselves with the countries they ruled over - will be packing up and going home after 24 years of absolute rule. And there is general expectation that with Moi's departure, the prospects for this tired, poor nation of 31 million - once thought of as the gem of East Africa - are about to improve.

"There are so few examples of a change in power [from one elected party to a different party] in Africa that it is important to nurture it to success - to make it work," says Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi, director of the Ghana Center for Democratic Development. "There is much room for hope."

Only a handful of big men are still holding onto their posts after two decades or more. Robert Mugabe has ruled Zimbabwe for 22 years; Jose Eduardo Dos Santos in Angola for 23 years; and Gnassingbe Eyadema in Togo for 35 years.

Some Kenyans admit they will miss their iron-fisted leader. Moi's face is everywhere - on banknotes, coins, and posters looking down from nearly every office-building wall. There are hospitals, streets, and an international airport named after him. And at last count, there were 23 "Moi" public schools. Newsreels of the president's daily activities precede the main feature at the flicks, and Oct. 10 is "Moi Day," a national public holiday.

"He's a father to us," says Margaret Mwachia, a high school student found hanging out on Moi Avenue. She has, of course, never known any other leader. "It will be too weird without him," she says solemnly.

But the state of affairs in Kenya today speaks louder than such sentiment. Moi likes to point out that under his leadership Kenya - as opposed to most of the neighboring countries - has remained peaceful.

But other achievements are hard to find. Under his watch, Kenya's once-flourishing economy has ground to a virtual standstill: The average Kenyan survives on less than a dollar a day; slums have sprouted up around every city; street children roam the downtown areas sniffing glue and begging; HIV/AIDS rates have soared; violent crime is growing; most roads have collapsed into disrepair with barely any streetlights; and policemen routinely stop cars only to extract bribes.

Meanwhile, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have withheld hundreds of millions of dollars in aid over the past 10 years, citing widespread official corruption. According to Transparency International, a watchdog organization, Kenya is one of the world's most corrupt countries, and according to the South Africa Institute of International Affairs, Kenya has the world's second greatest income disparity between rich and poor.

And so it comes as no surprise that both candidates in this year's election have been campaigning on a similar platform - one of change. Both promise better healthcare, infrastructure, education, and security. Both say they will woo international aid, boost the economy, and create jobs. And both vow to stamp out corruption. "All will be better without Moi," goes one of the popular opposition songs.

But, some warn, the tide of enthusiasm for the post-Moi era should be tempered with realism. While new leadership in Kenya will be a good thing, says Robert Rotberg, director of the Program on Intrastate Conflict at Harvard's Kennedy School of government in Cambridge, Mass., there is much work to be done before ordinary people's lives improve.

"The elections are critical because Moi has stunted Kenya's development and curtailed growth.... Kenya has the human potential to be an African success and with him out of the way, it might be," says Mr. Rotberg. "But can Kibaki do it? That is the critical question."

Rotberg says he is unsure of the abilities of Kibaki's National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) - an alliance of opposition parties and former ruling-party malcontents that came together just two months ago. "I fear that the alliance will crack after his victory," says Rotberg. "And I wonder if Kibaki has the leadership qualities equal to the enormous challenge. Can Kenya move from despotism and corruption to sustainable development?"

Page: 1 | 2