Kenyans poised for peaceful poll

Mwai Kibaki sits in the shade in his garden, giving a press conference in a shortsleeve shirt with a leopard-skin pattern. His bandaged leg is propped up in front of him among the microphones and his right arm is hanging limp in his lap. He is recovering from a car crash last month.

Mr. Kibaki's eldest son, Jimmy, steps out onto the patio and observes the scene. "Dad's a little battered," he admits with a grin. "But we are well on track." All indications are that Kibaki will become Kenya's next president on Friday.

Like Kibaki, Kenya is a bit battered. After the 24-year reign by current President Daniel arap Moi, Kenya is faced with decimated economy and a legacy of corruption and political patronage. But this year, observers say that Kenya is poised for a change, and peaceful one at that. This peaceful transition of power would itself be a sign of progress in a country that has had a history of electoral violence.

"Kenyans have matured politically," says a senior Western diplomat. "I see a serious commitment on all sides to avoid violence and I believe this will be a more sober, calmer election than any of us could have predicted."

This will be only the third time since independence in 1963 that Kenyans are going to the polls in multiparty elections. In the months leading up to the vote in 1992, ethnic clashes erupted, leaving close to 2,000 people dead and forcing an estimated 300,000 others to flee their homes. When Kenyans went to the polls in 1997, violence again caused mass displacement and practically wiped out the tourism industry. This year, there had been expectations of the same.

But so far, the campaign has passed by without much ado. One reason is that the opposition managed to keep itself and its supporters united, insists Kibaki. In 1992, by contrast, the opposition parties spent more time fighting - literally - one another than competing with the ruling party. Mr. Moi won that election with only 36 percent of the vote.

The lesson apparently learned, the various opposition parties this year united to form the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) and chose Kibaki as their leader. And despite early concerns that the coalition would fall apart, it remained united and urged followers to conduct themselves peacefully.

"We arrived at an agreement to come together," Kibaki told reporters. "The solution is unity. There is no solution in fighting one's neighbors."

An independent poll conducted by the US based International Republican Institute finds Kibaki leading with 68.2 percent of the vote, with Moi's handpicked successor, Uhuru Kenyatta, getting only 21.4 percent (Moi himself is constitutionally barred from running again). The opposition's signature song - "Unbwogable," (or, "undefeatable," in Swahili slang) - is on its way to becoming a smash pop hit. Even Kenyatta admits he kind of likes it.

Mr. Kenyatta, son of Kenya's first president, Jomo Kenyatta, and a graduate of Amherst College in Northampton, Mass., is by all accounts a likable, if untested, politician. Kenyatta and Kibaki are each hitting the same themes: both promise to end the culture of corruption, give the economy a needed boost, encourage more international lending, and provide the basic services - such as healthcare, electricity, and police protection - that have disintegrated over the years.

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