A new doctrine and a Scud bust

The capture of a ship carrying 15 North Korean Scud missiles in the Arabian sea Monday dramatically underscores Washington's new emphasis on using preemptive means to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

The United States has long known that North Korea shipped missile technology abroad, but this is the first time it has helped intercept these weapons. "We have never caught them red-handed before - with documents on shipboard that are a clear lie," says one US-based source in Seoul. "We have often tracked these ships, but this is the first actual evidence of proliferation."

This interdiction reflects the more aggressive posture outlined in the Bush doctrine of stopping the underground spread of weapons that can be used by terrorists or rogue nations. The US "must have the capability to defend against WMD-armed adversaries, including in appropriate cases through preemptive measures," says a strategy document released this week.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, former national security adviser to President Carter, says the ship interdiction is a "completely appropriate and commendable action." But he's concerned that it may indicate a turn to more forceful preemptive action at the expense of international cooperation on weapons proliferation.

"We have real cause to be concerned about the indiscriminate proliferation of weapons of mass destruction," says Mr. Brzezinski. "But to the extent possible, an international response is preferable. Otherwise, states will respond with surreptitious, aggressive acts of their own, and we could find ourselves on a dangerous slide down to the law of the jungle."

Pyongyang has been shipping ballistic missile technology for more than a decade to countries such as Syria, Iran, Pakistan, Libya, and Yemen. North Korea's modified version of the Soviet Scud missile, the Nodong, is believed to have provided the basis for Pakistani, Iranian, and Iraqi models of the ballistic missile, which has become commonplace in many parts of the world, including Afghanistan, where different factions used Scuds during the civil war.

Since China recently signed the Missile Control Technology Regime (MCTR), whose members promise not to export surface-to-surface missiles or their components, North Korea and Syria have been the only two countries to sell such goods, according to Paul Beaver, an independent defense analyst based in London.

The US has issued sanctions on North Korean companies seven times since 1992 for violations against MCTR. In August, Washington imposed economic sanctions on a North Korean company for sales of Scuds to Yemen.

Since neither North Korea nor Yemen are signatories to the regime, this latest shipment was not illegal. But the seizure clearly signals Washington's desire to curb missile proliferation even beyond the MCTR.

"We are talking about quite an ubiquitous weapon, but it is a terror weapon, not a precision one," says Mr. Beaver. Though the highly mobile, single-stage missile is easy to launch, "you need very precise coordinates to make it accurate, and not many nations are able to do that."

"North Korea is clearly doing this for the money, which they need desperately," he adds. Scud missiles with their launchers are believed to be worth around $13 million each.

Along with North Korea's admission in October that it has a secret uranium enrichment program, Monday's capture also gives fodder for tougher elements in the Bush administration that consider Pyongyang dangerous.

"This can be unsurprising, and still get taken quite seriously," says one US military source. "This is one more glowing example of the kind of regime we are dealing with, and it seemed to land on the administration's lap."

One South Korean official likened the Scud shipment to throwing "gunpowder onto a fire," though a Western observer suggested a major incident of this type may finally force North Korea into serious negotiations.

Three months ago Condoleezza Rice, the White House National Security Advisor gave an unambiguous warning to North Korea to stop its shipments of missile technology. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday the North is the world's "single largest proliferator" of missile technology. North Korea has developed missiles since the late 1960s, when it worked with Egypt during the Yom Kippur War.

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