The shift that propelled Republicans to victory in the recent congressional elections was not a major one - overall, voters chose the GOP by a margin of just four percent.

But in those four percentage points could lie the seeds of something much larger.

Postelection surveys indicate that the GOP expanded its support among white men and rural voters. More striking, the party also made inroads into traditionally Democratic constituencies such as women and union members, Catholics and Hispanics. The outcome is giving new credence to Karl Rove's vision - first shared during the 2000 campaign - of a new Republican dominance, such as that which took hold with William McKinley's presidency in 1896, and lasted for decades.

Of course, it's far too early to declare anything like an emerging Republican majority. Even GOP strategists admit that the party's gains weren't exactly overwhelming, and that it will take another election or two to establish any sort of larger trend.

Still, Mr. Rove is clearly feeling hopeful: "Something is going on out there," the White House political strategist was reported as saying in a talk last week at the University of Utah. "It's not just that Republicans picked up three seats in the Senate or six or seven or eight seats in the House. It's something else more fundamental."

On a smaller scale, Rove has overseen the creation of a GOP majority once before - in the state of Texas. When Mr. Bush won the Texas governorship in 1994, defeating Democrat Ann Richards, he won just 53 percent of the vote, and Republicans were the minority in the state legislature. Four years later, he was reelected in a landslide, and the GOP took over the state Senate and nearly took the House. The party's continuing dominance in the Lone Star state was evident this year, as Republicans won by wide margins in the Senate and governor's races.

Large-scale voter realignments, however, are far rarer. The last major one occurred during Franklin Roosevelt's presidency, when he redefined the Democratic Party as the party of workers, city dwellers, and immigrants, creating a new Democratic majority. During Ronald Reagan's tenure, a smaller realignment took place, as conservative Democrats in the South realized their natural ideological home was more in the GOP - a shift that is still taking place, though it has mostly played itself out.

So far, analysts say there are few signs that any kind of realignment is taking place on President Bush's watch. While more people may have voted for Republicans in this year's elections, it doesn't mean they've permanently moved to the GOP camp. "You have to draw a distinction between voting and attachment," says Donald Green, a political scientist at Yale University. "You can root for one team, and you can vote for that team - but unless you think of yourself as a team member, what you do is kind of transitory."

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