Turkey faces an Islamic challenge

Turkish elections are just over three weeks away, and the country's hottest politician is ... not even in the race.

Not officially, anyway. Last month, an electoral board ruled that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, head of the Islamically oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP), was ineligible to run because he was convicted of sedition in 1998.

But Mr. Erdogan's meteoric rise to popularity does not appear to be losing steam. On the contrary, the party he founded last year on the ashes of the Islamist Welfare Party, disbanded in 1997 by Turkey's secular establishment, seems only to have gained supporters since the Supreme Electoral Board ruled he was unqualified to run.

The decision to ban Erdogan and three other controversial figures from running for office comes at a particularly sensitive moment – a time when Turks are reeling from an economic crisis, trying to win entry into the EU, and grappling with Washington's plans to attack their neighbor, Iraq.

The US will need Turkey, a NATO ally, for both political support and the use of air bases for a strike against Iraq. But popular backing here for a war against Iraq is almost nonexistent – and a government run by the AKP looks likely to be even less inclined to support US action.

Erdogan, charismatic and not yet 50, stands out among other politicians: Average Turks see him and the party he built as clean, conservative, and concerned with the little guy. He says he is now focused on reforming the country's ailing economy and winning a place for Turkey in the European Union (EU). But his conviction four years ago stemmed from a rally at which he spoke with jihad-type undertones. He read from a poem which included the lines: "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers."

Now, Erdogan sits at the helm of the AKP, which pollsters predict will be the big winner next month, raking in about 30 percent of the vote – up from about 25 percent when Erdogan was actually in the race.

But what role Erdogan will play is a mystery that people around Turkey are trying to decipher.

"The problems are going to start from Minute One, because as head of party and as a shadow prime minister, Erdogan will have to play this game of someone else running the government," says Dr. Ilter Turan, a political science professor at Istanbul Bilgi University.

A number of issues have propelled Ergodan's party toward the top. Foremost among them are the state secularism that some feel has gone too far – such as banning women in Muslim headscarves from official government offices and universities. Moreover, middle-of-the-roaders and people fed up with older political parties may be turning to AKP precisely because the ban on Erdogan's candidacy has given him an aura of a beleaguered underdog.

And, unlike some of Turkey's parties that have been built around the magnetism of one leader and by wearing the mantle of Islam, AKP has far more than Erdogan behind it. "This is a party with a whole leadership cadre – one man does not mean the end of the party," adds Turan. "They are well-organized and they know how to reach the masses."

When Motherland, a pro-business party, has a $1000-a-head fundraising dinner at the Sheraton, he points out, the AKP has a picnic with grilled kebabs. More than any other, the party has built up a reputation for helping the struggling working class.

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