Experts eye decline, shift in immigration

The number of immigrants – at least illegal ones – entering the United States has apparently been declining since Sept. 11.

But the number of immigrants from the Middle East is swelling, according to a study by Steven Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies in Washington. By 2010, the number of post-1965 immigrants and their children from that troubled region could reach 4 million. Most will be Muslim, well-educated, relatively affluent – and voters.

"This is going to matter," says Mr. Camarota.

Assuming that the Israeli-Palestinian dispute drags on, Washington politicians will face a gradually more powerful voting bloc that will likely be more sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians.

Usually supporting the Israeli side today are 6 million Jews in the US, a group whose numbers are thought to be stagnant.

The overall Middle East immigrant population reached nearly 1.5 million in 2000, up from 200,000 in 1970.

Many experts keep a close watch on the inflow of immigrants, which, beyond such political implications, has a direct, major impact on the workforce, the housing market, and the economy.

The US has a population of 285 million, of which about 32 million, or 11 percent, are foreign born. Naturalized citizens number about 12.5 million, or 40 percent of those who are foreign born.

In the 1991-2000 decade, legal immigrants numbered 9.1 million. The Census Bureau also estimates the illegal-alien population in the US to be about 8.7 million. Researchers at Northeastern University put the number as high as 11 million.

The illegal-alien population has been rising 400,000 to 500,000 a year.

This year, Camarota guesses, illegal entries may drop by 100,000 to 200,000 people. An Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) spokesman, Russ Bergeron, agrees that "undocumented entries" are down. But he doesn't put a number on that.

One factor is the weaker US economy. There are fewer jobs for illegals. The word gets back to Mexico and elsewhere fast.

Another element is a major effort in Washington to clean up Social Security records. Those of undocumented workers often do not square with the agency's files, and some may be losing their jobs as a result.

Also, fewer foreigners are trying to enter the country legally. That number is down about 16 percent since September from the same period a year before. Some of those admitted legally to attend school or work overstay their visas illegally.

Further, more of those trying to get in using false documents or other means are rejected. "More of them are caught," says Mr. Bergeron. In June, for instance, the number of inadmissibles was 60,493, up 8 percent from June in 2001.

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