Why change is stalled in Mideast

America's three closest Arab allies sent their foreign ministers to Washington Thursday hoping against hope to find a diplomatic path out of the Palestinian-Israeli cycle of violence.

What they want is a bridge across the chasm between the American and Israeli focus on security first, and their own view – supported by the Europeans – that progress can come only with equal advances on political and economic fronts.

But with the revival of attacks on Israeli civilians this week, and domestic political considerations preoccupying both President Bush – heading into midterm congressional elections – and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, expectations for progress before next year are modest at best.

Both President Bush and Mr. Sharon see their respective "wars on terror" as the central focus of their administrations. And for Mr. Bush – and a significant slice of the US electorate – Israel's security is inextricably intertwined with that war.

Both leaders, each with public approval ratings around 70 percent, can interpret that voters are supportive of their current approach. "The security situation is the main factor in Sharon's popularity," says Mina Tsemach, director of DAHAF Institute, an Israeli polling firm. "If he were to withdraw from the territories and terrorism would continue, his popularity could drop."

While Bush has called upon the Palestinians to elect leaders "not compromised by terrorism," any Palestinian elections won't take place until January – and Yasser Arafat says he won't be stepping down.

All this adds up to scant prospects for movement – and little satisfaction for the visiting Arab ministers.

"The [Bush] administration is not likely to move with any great energy until after the [US November] elections," says Michael Hudson, a Middle East expert at Georgetown University in Washington. Noting the Arabs and other players are looking for the US to pressure Israel on its military occupation of Palestinian territories, Mr. Hudson adds, "There is a domestic disincentive to take measures they know would aggravate the pro-Israel community [in the US]."

The foreign ministers from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan met with Bush Thursday, carrying plans from a Cairo meeting last week for advancing Palestinian reforms, including the creation of a new prime minister position in Palestine – to be filled by a new parliament.

But as Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher told journalists in Washington Thursday, the plan's workability is "contingent on pressure on the Israeli occupation." Egypt has also said it would work with Palestinians to reform their security forces, but Mr. Maher said that "cannot happen in an occupied land."

Despite deep private disappointment among Arab leaders with Bush's June 24 speech (in which he placed responsibility for progress on the Palestinians and their ability to halt all violence) the Arabs are looking at how to work with – and perhaps around – the US demands.

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