As Turkey reels, hurdles loom for EU bid, Iraq attack

Turkey's tottering coalition of left-wingers and right-wing nationalists moved closer to collapse Wednesday morning when popular Foreign Minister Ismail Cem announced his resignation, followed closely by Kemal Dervis, architect of Turkey's economic recovery program. The men are the seventh and eight ministers to resign, further weakening a government that has been paralyzed since May by the failing health of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit.

The political crisis could not come at a worse time. Growing political chaos threatens to end Turkey's fading hopes of meeting the European Union's accession criteria in time for the Copenhagen summit this December. Chances of resolving the decades-long deadlock on Cyprus are also receding fast. And the impact on a possible US attack on Iraq and the status of Turkey's peacekeeping troops in Afghanistan are both open questions.

The Turkish peacekeepers are currently confined to the Afghan capital, Kabul, but an extension of their mandate to other parts of the country is being discussed. The US has opposed any change to the status quo, but diplomats believe that with a strong lead from Turkey, the peacekeeping mission could be transformed, to the benefit of Afghan stability. The present climate of political uncertainty here, they say, makes any change unlikely.

For Cengiz Candar, columnist at moderate Islamic daily Yeni Safak, such fears are unfounded. "Turkey's mission in Afghanistan is the affair of the General Staff," he says, "and it's not their power which is falling to pieces right now."

Foreign observers also fear early elections here could have a negative effect on Turkey's foreign policy obligations, which has special resonance for its NATO allies, including the US. Turkey recently took charge of the peacekeeping force in Afghanistan, and is expected to play an important role in any US-led campaign against neighboring Iraq.

According to Mr. Candar, early elections will deal a blow to Ankara's willingness and ability to provide logistical and military assistance a US assault on Saddam Hussein. Not only is it becoming increasingly unclear who in the Turkish administration US leaders should be talking to, he says, but "any country set on elections has to take into account public sentiment."

Since the plan for an attack on Mr. Hussein was first mooted last autumn, the Turkish public has been hostile. Turkey is estimated to have lost $30 billion in export revenue as a result of sanctions against Iraq since the Gulf War, and many fear a second US attack would destroy the country's crisis-stricken economy. "Any government showing enthusiasm for American plans would be perceived by the electorate as flying in the face of the country's interests," says Mr. Candar.

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