The Uighur region of Northwestern China. An island in the Indonesian archipelago. The arid and mountainous border between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan's North West Frontier Province.

Ask intelligence experts where they think Osama bin Laden might be hiding from American wrath, and you find yourself riffling through the pages of an atlas in search of some of the world's most remote and inhospitable corners.

But the fact remains that "nobody knows where he is," says Alex Standish, editor of the authoritative Janes Intelligence Digest.

Nine months after President Bush said he wanted Mr. bin Laden "dead or alive" and declared war on the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan who refused to hand him over, the most wanted man in the world is still on the run.

And though US officials are now talking more about the dangers posed by midlevel Al Qaeda operatives, their leader, inspiration, and ideologist remains a key quarry.

"It is of critical importance for the US to capture [the top Al Qaeda leadership]," says a former senior US intelligence official who asked not to be named. "As long as they are around, they pose a huge threat, both in terms of organizational recruitment ... and the planning and carrying out of additional attacks."

Washington and its allies have enjoyed some success in their bid to decapitate Al Qaeda. The group's military commander, Mohammed Atef, was killed in a US airstrike on Nov. 14. Another of bin Laden's key deputies, director of foreign operations Abu Zubaydah, was captured in Faisalabad by Pakistani police last March in a joint operation with FBI agents.

But since US and Afghan troops said they had encircled bin Laden in Tora Bora last December, there has been neither sight nor sound of the Al Qaeda founder – who has a $25 million reward on his head – nor of his closest confidant Ayman al-Zawahiri. He has issued no new videos, nor has anyone spotted him communicating by radio, telephone, or computer.

Some analysts believe that bin Laden's silence suggests he was killed in Tora Bora. But no evidence of his death has emerged, and an Al Qaeda spokesman insisted in a statement Sunday that he was alive and well.

"I really want to assure the Muslims that Sheikh Osama bin Laden, with the mercy of Allah, is in a good health, and all rumors about Sheikh Osama's sickness or injuries in Tora Bora is completely inaccurate news," said spokesman Suleiman Abu Ghaith, in an audiotape aired by the Qatari TV station Al Jazeera.

The Washington Post reported yesterday that government analysts had run tests that confirmed the tape's authenticity.

Many US officials believe that bin Laden is still in Afghanistan, seeking refuge in the mountains along the border with Pakistan.

That is the belief, too, of Rohan Gunaratna, author of the recently published book, "Inside Al-Qaeda."

"Bin Laden won't leave Afghanistan," says Dr. Gunaratna. "His stature as a leader would diminish if he did, because he could not expect others to fight the Americans in Afghanistan if he is not there."

Bin Laden is familiar with the border area, since he operated there for several years during the war against Soviet troops, and he enjoys support among the local people, Gunaratna adds.

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