India, Pakistan tone down vitriol

Tensions between India and Pakistan appear to be easing this week, after a quiet shuttle mission to Islamabad and New Delhi by US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.

Government officials in India and Pakistan said they would be watching each other's activities in the next few days in hopes that the sudden shift in rhetoric gets translated into actions on the ground.

The conflict between these two rival neighbors over the state of Jammu and Kashmir has brewed for more than 50 years, but became the world's top concern only when both sides talked of using nuclear weapons.

In Islamabad, Armitage secured a promise from Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to "stop cross-border infiltration [by Pakistan-based militants into Indian Kashmir] permanently." And in New Delhi, Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh told Armitage the pledge was "a step forward" and if India can verify that the pledge is being honored, "India will respond appropriately and positively."

Indian army sources told The Asian Age, a top Indian newspaper, that they will be watching the pattern of infiltration by Pakistani-based militants until June 15 before deciding whether to pull back from the border.

Still, the momentum for war has slowed visibly, due partly to the US ability to give both sides a face-saving way out of the crisis.

"I think the US has shown great sensitivity in this crisis," says Anuradha Chinoy, a professor of international studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. "They are using the classic pressure-compromise, carrot-and-stick tactics. The carrot is if India can deescalate this crisis, there might be some encouragement of increased trade with India, which India wants. And if Pakistan deescalates, there might be more aid for Pakistan, which it desperately needs."

But if either side insists on continuing with war, they might both face the stick of a permanent US or international presence in the region.

"Both India and Pakistan might be subjected to the US and Britain coming in and watching over the Line of Control," says Professor Chinoy, referring to the 1965 cease-fire line that separates the Pakistani-controlled section of Kashmir from the Indian side. That possibility, she says, would be a humiliating rebuke to both Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Musharraf, who have both based their regimes on preserving their country's national security.

Over the weekend, there were conflicting signals from the border. Indian Army sources say infiltrations from Pakistan have indeed dropped since May 27, the day Musharraf declared that cross-border infiltration had stopped. There has also been a reported drop in shelling by India and Pakistan, and a 70 percent drop in radio communication from Pakistani commanders to their insurgents within Indian Kashmir.

Yet, there were plenty of signs that two countries are still far from peace.

Pakistani forces reported shooting down an Indian unmanned spy plane over its territory near the Pakistani city of Lahore on Saturday.

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