A messy, yet 'Beautiful' year

What I like best about this year's sweepstakes is that it isn't neat and tidy enough to make predictions easy.

The Best Picture nominees have little in common. There's the small-town drama of "In the Bedroom" and the posh-estate satire of "Gosford Park." There are the tortured-life phantasms of "A Beautiful Mind" and the mythological phantasms of "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," which certainly deserves a prize for longest title of the year. And don't forget the musical "Moulin Rouge," the longest shot so far this century.

Still, Best Picture is one of the less difficult races to call. The winners for Best Actor and Best Actress are harder to foretell, and the supporting categories are wide-open events where anything could happen. Which makes predictions even more fun than usual. Here are the guesses – and preferences – of one reviewer who finds the Oscar race surprisingly lively, given the overall drabness of the movies that came our way in 2001.

Nominees:

"A Beautiful Mind"

"Gosford Park"

"In the Bedroom"

"The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"

"Moulin Rouge"

Probable winner:

"A Beautiful Mind." I stand with the conventional wisdom on this one. Ron Howard's latest is a solid step above his usual fare – it beats "Backdraft" and "Ransom" by a mile – but more important, it's a perfect Oscar picture. The theme is warm and humanistic; the hero is vulnerable and sympathetic; and the story has a touch of "Sixth Sense" surprise that ingeniously taps into current tastes for psychological suspense.

Most deserving:

"Gosford Park." Director Robert Altman is a true American master with a unique vision, a finely tuned talent, and the good sense to collaborate with more great actors than you'll find in several ordinary movies. A win for him would be veddy, veddy satisfactory.

Nominees:

Russell Crowe ("A Beautiful Mind")

Sean Penn ("I Am Sam")

Will Smith ("Ali")

Denzel Washington ("Training Day")

Tom Wilkinson ("In the Bedroom")

Probable winner:

Crowe. His work in "A Beautiful Mind" is one of the rare performances that really deserves to be called bravura, etching a complex character from unseasoned college kid to crotchety old Nobel Prizewinner, with all the stages in between. Crowe lucked out with his "Gladiator" victory last year, but this one would be richly deserved – and would put him into the Tom Hanks Club of back-to-back winners.

Most deserving:

Crowe.

Smith.

Nominees:

Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball") Judi Dench ("Iris")

Nicole Kidman ("Moulin Rouge")

Sissy Spacek ("In the Bedroom")

Renee Zellweger ("Bridget Jones's Diary")

Probable winner:

Spacek. She hasn't had a high Hollywood profile lately, and the academy loves a comeback, especially when it's in a human-interest drama that relies on strong acting. Spacek has been nominated six times – with a single win, for "Coal Miner's Daughter" in 1981. Honoring her for "In the Bedroom" would affirm the academy's respect for hard-working professionals who continue to refine their talents in sincere, unflashy roles. This would be an upset for Berry – or for Dench, a consummate pro – but either stands a strong chance.

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