Money in politics: a new route

It took seven years and the most protracted legislative struggle since the civil rights movement to get a new campaign-finance bill through the Congress.

Now, the hard part begins.

After President Bush signs the new bill into law – as he has said he will – campaign-finance reform faces a legal challenge that is certain to go to the Supreme Court.

Its practical effect will also be partly shaped by how it is translated into specific rules by the Federal Election Commission (FEC), where two of six commissioners have publicly argued against the reform.

But ultimately its implications will likely be determined by the rough and tumble of high-stakes politics. In the end, its results may be neither as dramatic as supporters hope, nor as damaging as critics contend.

"The biggest change will be the removal of big checks from the political process, and perhaps the rebirth of grassroots political activity," says Marshall Wittmann, a a political analyst at the Hudson Institute. Coming shifts in the political landscape now possibly include:

• A decline in the influence of national party headquarters. Deprived by law of big, unregulated soft money donations, they may have less money to fund party activities and pass along to candidates.

• A rise in the influence of state party leaders. State parties will still be allowed to collect soft-money checks of up to $10,000 per contribution, under the law. Their position in the political pecking order may correspondingly rise.

• A change in the definition of "fat cat." After the campaign-finance law takes effect following this fall's election, the most courted donors may no longer be rich individuals or corporate leaders willing to write six-figure checks on their own. Instead, the true "fat cats" may be the so-called "bundlers" – people who have the contacts and skill to elicit hard-money donations of up to $2,000 apiece from many individuals.

If nothing else, that means political contributions may now be more difficult to track.

"The new focus will be on the bundling of many large, but not enormous, contributions – the [$2,000] contributions coming from the wage earner, their spouse and their children," says Sheila Krumholz, a researcher at the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks political spending. "That's the most challenging part of what we do."

• Uncertainty about the future of nonparty interest groups. The National Rifle Association, the American Civil Liberties Union, and other organizations may lose influence if the new law's restrictions on "issue ads" financed by nonparty money stand. But this provision of the law is sure to face tough scrutiny in the courts, as a possible infringement on free speech rights.

"I'm relatively confident this bill will be struck down in the Supreme Court," says Sen. Phil Gramm (R) of Texas.

The NRA and others may also get richer after the law takes effect, as some of the cash that used to flow into politics via the soft-money loophole flows to them instead.

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