A big test of nuclear deterrence

The current crisis in South Asia has been profoundly affected by the mere presence of India's and Pakistan's nuclear arsenals.

Fighting may yet erupt over the disputed territory of Kashmir, despite the specter of possible escalation to atomic war. Indian officials, in particular, have vowed that their large conventional forces will not remain paralyzed by the threat of Pakistan's cache of nuclear bombs.

But to this point, the fact that the two adversaries are now nuclear-capable appears to have to slowed down events, as leaders in New Delhi and Islamabad gauge each other's response.

"Both sides now show great cognizance that there are nuclear dangers and that they have to be extremely careful," says George Perkovich, author of a study of India's nuclear program and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

If not for the knowledge of the nuclear dangers, Indian forces on the border might have already crossed into Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, judge other experts.

Thus, for Pakistan, nuclear deterrence has worked, at least for the short term. Whether that continues, and what happens if it does not, remains to be seen.

"I know it goes against all nonproliferation theory, but I believe the presence of nuclear weapons [in the region] has actually made things better, for now," says Sumit Ganguly, a South Asia expert at the University of Texas at Austin.

The possibility of an uncontrolled India-Pakistan war over Kashmir has long been a nightmare scenario for Western non-proliferation experts. It represents the most likely set of circumstances they can think of that could lead to the use of a nuclear weapon in anger.

The human toll of such an attack would be unthinkable. India has more than 1 billion people, and Pakistan nearly 150 million. Just one weapon detonated over Bombay could cause 850,000 casualties, according to a recent study.

And in recent years, India and Pakistan have engaged in worrisome rounds of nuclear bluster.

In May, 1998, India conducted what it described as five nuclear tests in the northwestern desert state of Rajasthan. The tests were India's first since 1974, and ended a careful stance of ambiguity regarding the nation's possession of nuclear weapons.

Three weeks later, Pakistan conducted six nuclear tests in its southwestern region. The point: we can do it, too.

The United States and the Soviet Union also engaged in such nuclear showmanship, particularly at the beginning of the cold war. But the superpowers' capitals were not three or four minutes of missile flight time apart, as are New Delhi and Islamabad.

Nor did superpowers' troops ever fire directly on each other in an extensive hot war. India and Pakistan now have tens of thousands of troops facing each other across their mutual border, mobilized since a Dec. 12 attack on the Indian Parliament, which India blamed on Pakistan-based Kashmiri terrorist groups.

Page: 1 | 2