Israelis contemplate life after Yasser Arafat

Yasser Arafat has always been the bane of Israel's existence. But more than ever before, Israelis are wondering out loud what would happen if Mr. Arafat ceased to exist, or at least existed someplace farther away.

In settings ranging from the inner offices of Israel's government and military to the pages and screens of its news media, Israelis are contemplating the most extreme measures in dealing with the Palestinian leader.

Should Israel give him one last chance as a peace partner? Or is he to be toppled, even killed? And if Israel were to dismantle Arafat's Palestinian Authority - and, say, send him into exile - then what?

The short answer to the last question, according to Israeli political scientist Shmuel Sandler, is: "Nobody knows. There are those who argue one of his lieutenants would take over.... And others argue that [the Palestinian territories] might disintegrate into chaos."

Judging from its actions, the government seems intent on coming very close to eliminating Arafat, without actually coming too close. On Tuesday, Israeli missiles struck a building less than 100 yards from where the Palestinian leader was holding a meeting; an Israeli military spokesman said the munitions were on target.

And the Israelis seem to want to disable the PA but not destroy it. On Tuesday, Israel's military certainly could have turned Gaza International Airport - a much-heralded milestone in the Palestinian march toward statehood - into a heap of sandy rubble. Instead, bulldozers and tanks destroyed the runway.

As Bar Ilan University political scientist Gerald Steinberg puts it: "Under the current circumstances, Israel should not be seen as determining or dictating the leadership of the PA." But Professor Steinberg acknowledges that Israel may want to create the conditions in which Arafat departs, or is rendered irrelevant, or is toppled - without the blame being laid directly at Israel's feet.

The government says its intention is to force Arafat to act against Palestinian militants by demonstrating that Israel has the power to remove him from power and destroy his nascent state. The Israelis are offering a choice: Guarantee our security, or we'll guarantee your collapse.

This arrangement has long been at the core of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, but never have the alternatives been presented so starkly.

On Monday evening, as the Israeli Cabinet deliberated a statement that would later declare the PA "an entity that supports terrorism," Foreign Minister Shimon Peres demanded consideration of the possible outcome of this shift toward a more militant Israeli policy, according to a report in yesterday's Yediot Ahronoth newspaper. "We have to discuss what will happen the day after Arafat," the paper quotes Mr. Peres as saying.

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